Boston Celtics at Dallas Mavericks Expert Pick And Predictions – June 14, 2024

BOSTON CELTICS AT DALLAS  MAVERICKS EXPERT PICKS AND PREDICTIONS—JUNE 14, 2024—Greetings, basketball fans. Welcome back to our NBA playoff coverage here at Godzilla Wins. Tonight, the Dallas Mavericks (62-40 SU, 59-42-1 ATS) will host the Boston Celtics (79-20 SU, 50-43-6 ATS)  in Game 4 of the NBA Finals. Will the Celtics clinch their 18th title, or will the Mavericks finally get their first win in this series?

Here is a look at which squad has the edge going into this matchup and why.

Tipoff

When: Friday, June 14, 2024 @ 8:30 PM ET

Where: American Airlines Center, Dallas, TX

TV: ABC

Boston Celtics at Dallas Mavericks Odds

Odds courtesy of DraftKings

Boston Celtics at Dallas Mavericks – Series Recap & Betting Trends

What Went Right For The Celtics In Game 3?

As the evening unfolded, the Celtics had to overcome a few factors. First, Kristaps Porzingis was on the shelf with a leg injury. Although he had missed 10 playoff games, he was effective at both ends of the floor. Second, the Mavericks got off to a hot start, jumping out to a 22-9 lead. Fast-forwarding to the fourth quarter, Boston was on the verge of letting a golden opportunity slip through its grasp, as the team nearly gave up a 21-point lead.

Fortunately, the road team kept its composure and eventually won the game by a 106-99 margin. Jayson Tatum — who was shooting just 31.6 overall and 28.6 percent from deep — paced the Celtics’ scoring attack with 31 points,  six boards, and five dimes on 11-for-26 from the field and 4-for-13 from beyond the arc.  Still not overly efficient, but the numbers were better than what we saw in Games 1 and 2.

Jaylen Brown wasn’t far behind, as he finished with 30 points on 12-for-22 shooting overall. Although he was just 2-for-9 from long range, Brown also finished with eight rebounds and eight assists.

In addition to outscoring the Mavericks by 24 points from the 3-point line, the Celtics defense has held Dallas below 100 points in all three games of this series. To put that into perspective, it is worth noting that the Mavericks averaged 106 points against the top-seeded Oklahoma City Thunder. They followed that up with a 111.4 points-per-game average against the Minnesota Timberwolves, who were the league’s top defensive team during the regular season. Thanks to a solid effort at both ends of the floor, Boston is one win away from capturing its 18th title, which would be the most championships won by any team in the association.

What Went Wrong For The Mavericks In Game 3?

The bad news was that the Mavericks were down 2-0 for the first time in the playoffs. The good news was that the next two games were going to be played on their home floor. This was significant, considering how close they came to winning Game 2.

As expected, the Mavericks showed a sense of urgency early, jumping to a double-digit lead and sending the home crowd into a frenzy. Boston recovered from the early onslaught and pulled within 51-50 at the break. The road team’s success continued in the third quarter, as Boston outscored Dallas 35-16 in the period and led by 21 points early in the fourth.

But just when the Mavericks seemed deflated and defeated, they bounced back, and in a big way. Over the next several minutes, the home team produced a 22-2 run that trimmed the deficit to a single point. To be honest, it appeared that Dallas was on the verge of stealing a game it had no business winning. Then, everything went south from there.

Doncic picked up his sixth foul with 4:12 left in regulation. Irving, P.J. Washington, and Tim  Hardaway Jr. missed each of their three-point attempts down the stretch. When it was said and done, the Celtics narrowly escaped with a 106-99 victory.

Kyrie Irving averaged just 14 points through the first two games of the series. Well, he turned in his best performance, finishing with 35 points on 13-for-28 shooting while converting four of his six attempts from long range. He also had three rebounds and two assists.

Although A Gifted Scorer, Luka Doncic Continues To Be A Defensive Liability

Doncic contributed 27 points,  six rebounds, and six assists. At the same token, he was 11-for-27 from the floor and just 1-for-7 from deep. Not only that, but he picked up four of his six fouls in the fourth quarter and could not be on the floor when his team needed him the most. One of the reasons for Boston’s success is its ability to consistently attack Doncic on defense.

In fact, Doncic has the highest blow-by percentage allowed on drives in a series over the last 10 seasons. Unless he and the Mavericks can change that trend in Game 4, they will forced to watch the road team celebrate on their home floor.

Now that we have set the table for this matchup, let’s examine the betting trends for both teams.

The Spread

Some outlets have the Celtics as a slight favorite. However, according to FoxSports.com, the Mavericks come into this matchup as a one-point favorite despite being down 3-0 in this series. Here is a look at how both ball clubs have fared against the spread this season.

• In their last seven matchups against Dallas, the Celtics are 6-0-1 against the spread.
• Boston has covered the spread five times in its last six matchups against Southwest Division opponents.
• In their last six Friday games, the Mavericks are 5-1 against the spread.
• Dallas is 13-8 ATS in its last 21 outings as the favorite.

Prediction: Boston Celtics (+1)

Over/Under

The projected over/under total for this matchup is 211.5 points (per 365scores.com). Here is why going with the “under” is the smart choice.

• In the Celtics’ last five outings,  the total has gone UNDER four times.
• The UNDER total is 5-1 in Boston’s last six “road” contests against Dallas.
• The UNDER total cashed in five times in Dallas’s last six contests against Boston.
• In the Mavericks’ last five games against teams in the Eastern Conference, the UNDER total prevailed all five times.

Prediction: UNDER 211.5 points

Player Prop Bet

I accurately predicted that Tatum would exceed the estimated points total in Game 3, and he did not disappoint. And although it may sound a bit boring, I am going to ride the hot hand heading into Game 4. He currently has -115 odds of scoring more than 27.5 points and -105 odds of finishing with less than 27.5 points

Do Tatum’s numbers favorably compare to the estimated points total for this matchup? Let’s look at the tale of the tape to find out.

• Tatum is averaging 26.5 points per contest across 91 regular season and playoff games.
• In five games against Dallas this season, he has averaged 27.2 points per contest.
• During the postseason, Tatum is averaging 25.2 points per outing.
• Tatum is averaging 26.1 points per outing in 31 matchups against Western Conference opponents.
• In 13 matchups against teams in the Southwest Division, the Celtics forward is averaging 25.8 points per game.
• Over his last 10 outings, Tatum has averaged 27.7 points, 10.1 rebounds, and 6.7 assists per contest, exceeding the points total for this matchup five times during that stretch

Prediction: Jayson Tatum OVER 27.5 points