Boston Celtics at Dallas Mavericks Expert Pick And Predictions – June 12, 2024

BOSTON CELTICS AT DALLAS  MAVERICKS EXPERT PICKS AND PREDICTIONS—JUNE 12, 2024—Greetings, basketball fans. Welcome back to our NBA playoff coverage here at Godzilla Wins. Tonight, the Dallas Mavericks (62-39 SU, 59-41-1 ATS) will host the Boston Celtics (78-20 SU, 49-43-6 ATS)  in Game 3 of the NBA Finals. Will the Celtics roll to another victory, or will the Mavericks get their first win in this series?

Here is a look at which squad has the edge going into this matchup and why.

Tipoff

When: Wednesday, June 12, 2024 @ 8:30 PM ET

Where: American Airlines Center, Dallas, TX

TV: ABC

Boston Celtics at Dallas Mavericks Odds

Odds courtesy of DraftKings

Boston Celtics at Dallas Mavericks – Series Recap & Betting Trends

What Went Right For The Celtics In Game 2?

The Celtics entered the NBA Finals riding a seven-game winning streak following their sweep in the conference finals round. Despite their dominant 12-2 mark, though, their great run was being somewhat overshadowed by the Mavericks’ seemingly improbable postseason run. Just as they were head and shoulders above the field during the regular season, the Celtics have proven to be the better team through the first two games of this finals series.

They dominated the series opener to the tune of 107-89 and led by as many as 29 points in the first half. As expected, Dallas made some adjustments in Game 2, but Boston still emerged victorious 105-98. True to their blueprint, the Celtics won with a complete team effort.  Jrue Holiday — who is averaging 13.5 points in the postseason — led the Celtics’ scoring attack with 26 points, 11 rebounds, and three dimes on an efficient 11-for-14 effort from the field and 2-for-4 from beyond the arc.

Jaylen Brown — who Jason Kidd referred to as the Celtics’ best player following  Game 1 — turned in another complete performance with 21 points, seven assists, and four rebounds. He also had three steals.  Jayson Tatum finished with 18 points, 12 assists, and nine rebounds but shot just 6-for-22 from the floor and is 12-for-38 through the first two games. The law of averages says that Tatum is due for a breakout game at some point. However, the fact that Boston is up 2-0 despite one of its star players not shooting the ball particularly well, is a testament to the team’s depth.

Kristaps Porzingis Impact In These Finals

The one bit of bad news for the Celtics is Kristaps Porzingis’s health; he sustained a leg injury in the latter stages of Game 2 and is currently listed as questionable for Game 3. The unicorn returned to the team’s rotation after missing the last 10 games and 38 days with a calf injury. He scored 20 points in Game 1 and added another 12 points in Game 2. From a defensive perspective, he is averaging 2.5 blocks per contest and is tied with Tatum for the second-highest plus-minus rating on the team at plus-25.

Sure, Boston has gone 9-1 during KP’s 10-game absence. But if he is unable to suit up for Game  3, his absence could loom large as he’s playing very well at both ends of the floor.

What Went Wrong For The Mavericks In Game 2?

The Mavericks were not about to hit the panic button following their 18-point loss in Game 1. After all, they dropped Game 1 against the OKC Thunder by a 117-92 margin before winning that series in six games.  Dallas’s resiliency was on display again as they were much more competitive in Game 2. Unfortunately, the outcome was the same, and they now trail 2-0 for the first time in their postseason run.

Luka Doncic continued his string of solid playoff performances with 32 points, 11 boards, and 11 dimes. He also shot 12-for-21 from the floor and connected on four of nine attempts from distance.

P.J. Washington added 17 points and seven rebounds. Daniel Gafford contributed 13 points and nine rebounds on 6-for-9 shooting from the field.

Kyrie Irving had another noticeably subpar performance. He finished with 16 points and six assists but connected on just seven of his 18 attempts while missing all three of his attempts from the 3-point line. In the six-game set against the Clippers,  he averaged 26.5 points per contest on 51.4 shooting. Against the Minnesota Timberwolves — who were the league’s top defensive team during the regular season — he averaged 27 points per outing on 49 percent shooting.

Fast-forward to this series. Irving’s production has dipped to 14 points per contest on 35.1 percent shooting overall, and he is 0-for-8 from long range.

“They’re not going to stop pressing us, stop their pace, stop testing us on both ends of the floor,” Irving said via CBS Sports. “We know what we’re in for. But now we have to raise it to an even higher level, and it starts with me.”

If the Celtics continue to have success limiting Irving’s impact going forward, the Mavericks may not win a game in this series.

Now that we have set the table for this matchup, let’s examine the betting trends for both teams.

The Spread

Despite dropping the first two games of the series, the Mavericks head into Game 3 as a 2.5-point favorite (per Lineups.com). Here is a look at how both ball clubs have fared against the spread this season.

• The Celtics have covered the spread five times in their last six contests against Dallas (5-0-1).
• In its last five matchups against teams in the Southwest Division, Boston is 4-0-1 against the spread.
• The Mavericks covered the spread in each of their last seven Wednesday night games.
• In its last 20 outings as the favorite, Dallas has covered the spread at a 65-percent success rate (13-7).

Prediction: Dallas Mavericks (-2.5)

Over/Under

The projected over/under total for this matchup is 214 points (per 365scores.com). Here is why going with the “under” is the smart choice.

• The total has gone UNDER four times in the Celtics’ last five road games against Dallas.
• Additionally, in Boston’s last five June contests, the UNDER total is a perfect 5-0.
• The total has gone UNDER four times in the Mavericks’ last five matchups against Boston.
• In Dallas’s last seven contests against Eastern Conference teams, the UNDER total is 6-1.
• Although the teams exceeded the points total for this matchup in their two regular-season encounters, the total has gone UNDER in both games of this series.

Prediction: UNDER 214 points

Player Prop Bet

Jayson Tatum averaged 21.8 points per contest in the opening round against the Miami Heat, and he has increased that scoring average in the next two rounds. However, has yet to get on track in this series against Dallas, as he has averaged just 17 points per contest on 31.6 percent shooting overall and just 28.6 percent from behind the 3-point  line.

Because he leads the team in scoring, rebounding, and assists in the postseason, and because of the strong belief that he is due for a breakout performance, Tatum is my key player to watch for the Celtics. He currently has -115 odds of scoring more than 26.5 points and -115 odds of finishing with less than 26.5 points.

Do Tatum’s numbers favorably compare to the estimated points total for this matchup? Let’s look at the tale of the tape to find out.

• Tatum is averaging 26.5 points per contest during the regular season and playoffs.
• He has averaged 26.3 points per contest in four games against Dallas this season (including the playoffs).
• During the postseason, Tatum is averaging 24.9 points per outing.
• Tatum has played against Western Conference teams 30 times this season (including the playoffs). In those contests, he has averaged 26.0 points per outing.
• In 12 matchups against Southwest Division opponents, the Celtics forward is averaging 25.3 points per game.
• Over his last 10 outings, Tatum has averaged 27.1 points, 10.2 rebounds, and 6.8 assists per contest while exceeding the points total for this matchup four times during that stretch.

Prediction: Jayson Tatum OVER 26.5 points