Boston Bruins vs. Toronto Maple Leafs Pick and Prediction – May 2, 2024

BOSTON BRUINS VS. TORONTO MAPLE LEAFS EXPERT PICK AND PREDICTION – May 2, 2024 — At some point, the Maple Leafs are going to have to win a game on home ice. Over the past two years, the Leafs are an almost impossible 1-7 on home ice, having lost two of three to Tampa Bay, three to Florida and two to Boston in this series. Somehow, the Leafs have more playoff wins in both Florida and Massachusetts than they do in Ontario, which defies all logic.

To get this thing back to road ice, the Leafs have to figure out how to actually play in their own building. That’s actually been a problem all year for Toronto; the Leafs are just 22-17-4 on home ice this season. Away from home, the Leafs are a blistering 26-12-6. If there’s any way the NHL will let Toronto give up home ice advantage in the next round against Florida, the Leafs should seriously consider it.

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But first there’s the matter of getting past Boston, which squandered a chance to finish off Toronto in Game 5. There’s also the matter of whether or not the Leafs will get Auston Matthews back on the ice. If Toronto has him back, its chances increase drastically. The Leafs did just play a great game without him, but that’s not a case of addition by subtraction. Even after playing inspired hockey, Toronto is a better team with Matthews on the ice.

For the Bruins, there’s a matter of deja vu. Boston had a chance to slam the door on Florida last year in Game 5 at home, and it didn’t get the job done. The Panthers took control in Game 6 in Sunrise and finished the job in Game 7, completing the 3-1 comeback. Now the Bruins have to go back to Toronto and try to avoid another Game 7 — exactly the place the Leafs didn’t want to be when the series began.

The Odds

Puck Drop

When: Thursday, May 2 at 8 p.m. EST

Where: Scotiabank Arena, Toronto

TV: ESPN

Public Bets: Unavailable

Public Money: Unavailable

Odds courtesy of DraftKings, as of May 1st, 2024

Boston Bruins vs. Toronto Maple Leafs In-Season Trends

Goaltending continues to dominate this series. Not one of the five games played between the teams has seen more than six goals, and none of the nine meetings this year has seen more than six in regulation. With Joseph Woll standing tall in Game 5, it looks like goals will once again be at a premium between these squads.

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Except for the first game, every game in this series has been decided by two goals or less. Don’t expect any different in a game where both teams will likely play defensive hockey.

Players to Watch

Mitch Marner came up with a strong game to get the Leafs on the board early and keep Boston from dictating flow. When a team is in a must-win playoff situation, the way they start the game is crucial. Toronto needs another hot start from Marner as well as the rest of the lineup to keep the crowd in the game.

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To his credit, David Pastrnak was aggressive in shooting the puck. To the Bruins’ discredit, Trent Frederic was the only other skater in black and gold to show aggression. The Bruins didn’t make Woll uncomfortable enough, inexcusable after the Boston College product gave up a goal on Boston’s second shot of the game. There would be no others.

The Pick

It almost feels inevitable that we’re heading toward a seventh game for no other reason than to allow one team to exorcise their postseason demons. A Leafs win here would mean either Boston gets to fully bury the memory of the Florida choke with a Game 7 victory or Toronto finally gets to advance after a seventh game.

I’ve seen it happen to Ottawa enough to have a clue how it ends. As Ted Lasso taught us, it’s the hope that kills you. Toronto gives its fans reason to hope before crushing it in Game 7.