Bolts, Vikes, Pats On The Ropes

BALTIMORE, Maryland— Before we get to today’s NFL analysis and picks, let me ask two intelligent questions about yesterday college football games:

1. Why did Clemson not hand the ball off the best running back in the nation on third and one in overtime, already down by seven into a gassed Florida State D-Line?
2. How could Notre Dame allow Ohio State to run two consecutive offensive plays with the game on the line from the one-yard line with only 10 defensive players on the field. That’s right: TWO in a row. Unbelievable.

2023 ATS (Against the Spread) Record 

College Football: 19-11 (4-4 yesterday)

NFL: 18-13-1

Bolts, VIkes, Pats On The Ropes

It’s week three and already at least four teams who had Super Bowl aspirations are facing a potential disastrous 0-3 start. At least one of them is guaranteed, as the winless Bolts go to Minnesotta to face the Vikings. Both teams are going in 0-2. Unless we have a tie, one will emerge at 0-3.  The Bungles and the Pats are the other two. So lots at stake today. It’s not early anymore.

NFL 09-24-23

Colts at Ravens (-7) 

I’m in Baltimore this weekend and the weather has been horrible. We expect rain all day. This is been a factor in getting this down to seven points. It opened at 8.5. Candidly, I liked the Colts earlier in the week, but not now.

Related: Steelers vs. Raiders Expert Pick

I really have no interest in Randy Minchew and the Ravens could go up 2-3 games in their division with a win here. Indy has played inspired football, but the Ravens are as hungry as I have ever seen them. Give me their QB sloshing around on a sloppy field for a couple of TD’s and the cover.

Pick: Ravens (-7) 

Bills (-5.5) at Washington 

Will the real Josh Allen please stand up?

While Washington has looked very focused during their 2-0 start, eventually reality sets in with a rookie quarterback. Sam Howell has looked decent against mediocre defenses, but this is different. Josh Allen gets a breakout game today and the Bills prove they can win again.

Pick: Bills (-5.5) 

Denver at Miami (-5.5) 

This Fish bunch is something to watch. The speed is frightening. The quarterback is electric. They are at home, in the heat, playing a team that has lost it’s way. The whole Sean Peyton hype is becoming comical. Coaches need personnel to win games, not media clicks (See Colorado Buffalos). Russel Wilson is done, the team is about to go 0-3, and have no shot at getting in the  AFC West race. Blowout in Miami. This Denver team is a hapless cadre.

Pick: Fish (-5.5)

Texans At Jags (-7.5) 

Houston is a really bad football team. The Jags are for real this season, and favored to win the AFC South. These are games at home they have to win. They were competitive against the Chiefs last week, and I look for a solid rebound. The Texans are just horrible in all facets of the game. It’s a dismal franchise right now.

Pick: Jags (-7.5) 

Dirty Birds at Lions (-3) 

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I love Atlanta in this contest on the road. The Falcons’ Handoff-O-Rama to 20 different backs rivals what their head coach Arthur Smith did at Tennessee. Run the ball, throw short passes, run the ball, kick a field goal. Old school meets Dan Campbell and his hard knocks fame. Hey the Falcons are 2-0! Why stop now? They actually have put together something that resembles a defense.

This is really going to be fun to watch- today we find out if the Falcons are for real. Someone wins on the last play of the game. Either way, you cover.

Pick: Dirty Birds (+3) 

Bolts at Vikings (-1) 

LOL! Both teams are 0-2 and facing disaster in their respective divisions. It’s really this simple: the Chargers coaching staff and Brandon Staley will design a plan to blow the game in the final minute. It’s hard–but he manages to do it every week. Plus his star running back Austin Ekeler is out.

The Vikings love to win at the last second with a 55-yard field goal at home.

Kirk Cousins is elite, right?

Pick: Vikes (-1)

Titans (+3.5) at Browns

Ryan Tannehill made a statement last week and got the naysayers (like me) to shut up. The Titans broke a 8-game losing streak and their defense so far this season is better than advertised. This is another bruising, low scoring game.

Derrick Henry looks better than ever and Dee-Hop had a number of key catches last week.

Cleveland is without Nick Chubb, which really hurts their ground game against the best run defense in the AFC.

Tennessee gets some needed respect back today. How can the Browns move the ball without Chubb?

Pick: Titans (+3.5) 

Jets at Pats (+2.5) 

New England is not going to get much today against a very angry, pissed off Jets defense who just wore down last week. Pats open 0-3.

Pick: J E T S (+2.5) 

Saints at Packers (+1) 

New Orleans is 2-0. They have been lucky and they could be 0-2. The Pack should be a legitimate 2-0. I LOVE the Pack at home today with Jordan Love showing why he’s the Cheese Head now. This is my best bet of the day. 

Pick: Packers (+1) 

Panthers at Seattle (-5.5) 

What? How many -5.5 games are there in one day?

Carolina and their woke coach are going nowhere. If Frank Reich is the answer, it must be a very stupid question. If his IQ went went down a point, he’d be plant. I can’t bet this Carolina Clown Show with a bozo of a head coach.

Geno Smith will have a field day.

Pick: Seattle (-5.5) 

Dallas (-12.5) at Arizona 

Rinse. Wash. Repeat. Enough said. McCarthy is on a mission. Any given Sunday…the Cowboys blow somebody out.

Pick: Dallas (-12.5) 

Bears at Chiefs (-12.5) 

Oh my, the Bears look truly pathetic and in complete disarray. What a disaster in Chicago-land. You cannot bet them until they figure this out.

Pick: Chiefs (-12.5) 

Steelers (+3) at Raiders 

This game is made for Pittsburgh. Kenny Picket is back to at least being an average QB. I love Coach Tomlin as an underdog on Sunday night. The three here will matter. Steelers are very tough on Sunday and Monday nights.

Pick: Steelers (+3)