Bolivia vs. Panama Expert Pick and Prediction – July 1, 2024

BOLIVIA VS. PANAMA EXPERT PICK AND PREDICTION – July 1, 2024 — While the United States fights for its life in Copa America, Panama attempts to take full advantage of the Americans’ previous failure.

The U.S. will have one eye on this match while facing Uruguay, because Panama has a say in whether the Americans advance. If Los Canaleros better the Americans’ result in their match with Bolivia, they progress at the U.S.’s expense. Panama can’t afford to play for a draw, however, as a draw only helps them if Uruguay beats the Americans. If both sides draw, the U.S. advances. Panama moves on if it wins and the U.S. does not, and if both sides win, margin of victory comes into play. Panama currently holds a goal differential of minus-1 to the Americans’ plus-1, so a three-goal margin is the minimum for Panama to have any chance to erase the Americans’ lead on goal difference if the U.S. wins.

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And Bolivia represents the right opponent for a side needing a big number. Since arriving on American soil in May, Bolivia have played five matches and lost all of them. La Verde have been outscored 14-1 in that stretch, including a 5-0 loss last time to Uruguay. Bolivia could technically still advance to the knockouts, but it would have to beat Panama by at least four goals and have the Americans get shellacked by five against Uruguay. Considering Bolivia has scored only four goals all year, that’s not going to happen.

But this is still a tough ask for a Panamanian side that isn’t known for its scoring. Winning the match should be well within Panama’s capabilities, but scoring more than twice is an adventure. Most likely, Panama’s going to need a little help from Uruguay to keep its tournament alive.

Kickoff

Teams: Bolivia vs. Panama

When: Sunday, July 1 at 9 p.m. EST

Where: Exploria Stadium, Orlando, Fla.

TV: FS2

Spread: Bolivia +1/Panama -1

Moneyline: Bolivia +425/Panama -145/Draw +285

Totals: Over 2.5 (+100)/Under 2.5 (-125)

Odds courtesy of DraftKings, as of July 1st, 2024 

Scouting Bolivia

Bolivia came in as the biggest underdog in Copa America, expected to do nothing. But unlike Euro’s plucky underdog side Georgia, which not only scored in every match but got past the group stage, Bolivia have proven every bit as weak as advertised. In attack, La Verde have been as threatening as a dandelion. They’ve scored no goals, put four shots on target in two matches and barely spent any time on the attack.

The defense is a little better, but still not great. Bolivia has held Mexico and the United States to a combined three goals in losses. But with the Mexicans out and the Americans possibly joining them, that’s not very impressive. There’s nothing here to suggest Bolivia can make this interesting.

Scouting Panama

How Panama approaches this match will be determined by how things go in Kansas City. If the Americans are level with Uruguay or losing, look for Panama to sit back and hold what it has. An American defeat means a draw is good enough for Panama, a U.S. draw means Panama must win, and an American victory would force Los Canaleros to throw caution to the wind.

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Panama should be fairly fresh for this match, as it only used three substitutes against the United States. Los Canaleros will have to get creative to replace Adalberto Carrasquilla, as he took a red card against the United States and will be suspended for this match. Bolivia’s weakness means Panama will likely spend much of the match on the opposing half of the field, but that might not always be in a pressing manner.

Best Bets

Panama win to nil (+150): Bolivia has shown no ability to press forward and Panama should be able to control the tempo. All it takes is a 1-0 win to cash this bet, and that should be well within Panama’s ability.

Both Teams to Score, No (-110): Again, Bolivia isn’t likely to spend much time on the attack. Panama would need to get caught out of position pushing for a late goal to reasonably expect La Verde to score. Barring a Panamanian calamity, the only way both teams find the net is if the United States are leading Uruguay and Panama gives up a marker trying to push its margin of victory.

Panama 2-0 (+500): Most likely, Panama gets one or two in the first hour and then learns that the United States is trailing Uruguay in its match. At that point, Panama would switch its tactics and protect what it’s got, knowing that the Americans would need a win to progress. A two-goal win seems right here.