Bills vs. Chiefs Conference Championship Pick
The AFC playoffs played out how you would expect, with the one and two seeds making it to the Conference Championship. The Chiefs will host the Bills at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium on Sunday night for a chance to go to the Super Bowl, which will be held in New Orleans. Josh Allen is 0-3 against the Chiefs in the playoffs but 4-1 in the regular season. Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid have dominated in the playoffs, but they will have a tough test against this Bills’ team. Read more Bill vs. Chiefs conference championship pick below.
Bills vs. Chiefs Preview
Buffalo Bills
The Bills narrowly avoided a loss against the Ravens last week. Mark Andrews dropped the two-point conversion, which would have tied the game in the finals two minutes of the game. The Bills did suffer some injuries in that game.
Safety Taylor Rapp (back/hip) will not play this week. Cornerback Taron Johnson (neck/shoulder) was a full participant in practice on Friday, which is a good sign. Linebacker Matt Milano (biceps/hamstring) was also a full participant in Friday’s practice. Cornerback Christian Benford (concussion) missed Friday’s practice due to a personal matter and remains in concussion protocol.
Kansas City Chiefs
The Chiefs took care of business last week against the Texans, 23-14. The bye week did them a favor as they got healthy and remained healthy after last week. Patrick Mahomes (ankle) has been a full participant all week, so the injury should be no problem. Tackle Jawaan Taylor (knee) is also dealing with an injury, but it has not kept him out of practice this week.
Also, check out the Godzilla Wins Daily Staff Picks page for other best picks!
Buffalo Bills vs. Kansas City Chiefs Head-To-Head
The injuries for the Bills should factor into this game, especially against the Chiefs’ passing attack. Travis Kelce notched seven catches for 117 yards and a touchdown. He has a knack for showing up in big games, and I expect him to be the primary target of Mahomes this week with key injuries to the Bill’s secondary. Kareem Hunt led the way on the ground for the Chiefs last week, with eight carries for 44 yards and a touchdown. He and Isiah Pacheco should make a difference this week against the Bills, who are mediocre against the run. The Bills allow 116.7 rushing yards per game and have allowed 127.5 per game in the postseason.
The Bills’ best matchup on offense lies with their tight ends. The Chiefs allowed 6.2 receptions and 69.78 receiving yards per game to the position this season. They kept the Bills in check in week 11, only allowing five catches for 45 yards, but Dalton Kincaid did not play. He finished last week with one catch for 11 yards, but I expect him to be much more involved this week, especially if the Bills fall behind early. Josh Allen’s legs should also be a difference maker, as the Chiefs allowed the fifth-most rushing yards per game (26.4) to quarterbacks this season.
Prediction
Over/Under
These teams were two of the better defenses this season, and despite the Bills’ injuries, I expect this to be a close game. The Chiefs allowed 18.9 points, and the Bills allowed 21.1 points per game this season. The weather should not play much of a factor, either. I am taking the under and banking on the defenses to step up in the most important game of the season. Under 48.5
Spread
The Chiefs are the best team against the spread this season, with a 16-2 record. They have played in countless close games, but they always seem to come out on top and cover the number. I like them to do it again. Chiefs -1.5
Player Prop
The Chiefs are weak against tight ends and did not have to deal with Kincaid in their regular season matchup. The Bills will likely be trailing at some point in this game and will have to throw the ball more. Kincaid should be more involved than last week. Dalton Kincaid Over 32.5 Receiving Yards -109
