Best Futures Bets In the SEC

BEST FUTURES BETS IN THE SEC — 2024 was a down year by SEC standards, even though the backroom power brokers finagled Alabama a spot in the playoff. The Tide certainly didn’t deserve to go over an undefeated Florida State, but they made it and gave a credible effort in falling to eventual champion Michigan.

The league should be much more powerful this year, as several teams realistically have national championship aspirations in 2024. The end of divisions and the additions of Oklahoma and Texas change the equations considerably for this year, as the schedule received a massive shakeup for this season.

So there’s a lot to keep in mind here. Here are a few top bets in the SEC.

Texas to Win the Conference, +320

This time it’s real. Texas is back, and just in time. The Longhorns finally seem to have hired the right guy (assuming coach Steve Sarkisian’s divorce doesn’t become a distraction) and are stacked with talent at every position. When you have Arch Manning on your roster and he can’t get into the game because Quinn Ewers is playing too well, you’re doing something right.

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The Longhorns’ conference title hopes will come down to two consecutive weeks: the Red River Rivalry in Dallas with Oklahoma and Georgia’s visit to Austin. Other than that, Texas doesn’t see most of the best teams in the SEC. The Longhorns drew road games with Vanderbilt and Arkansas, making the season finale in College Station the only real tough road test on the slate. OK, there’s also a big September game at Michigan, but Michigan doesn’t play in the SEC. Texas will have an excellent shot at an SEC title if it avoids distractions.

Mississippi to Make the SEC Title Game, +260

This is nowhere near a sure thing. The Rebels still have to beat Georgia at home and survive the trip to Tiger Stadium to make it to Atlanta. But without Alabama or Texas on the schedule and Georgia coming to the Grove, Lane Kiffin might never get a better chance to take Ole Miss to the SEC title game.

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The Rebels’ biggest issue over the past few years has been their line play, so Kiffin made sure that part of Washington’s powerful offensive line followed Kalen DeBoer to the SEC by snagging two Husky starters in the portal. That should mean more time for Jaxson Dart to throw, and he’s already proven to be pretty good with the time he’s had. If the Rebels can be the ones to trip Georgia, they’re probably heading for the SEC title game.

Georgia Under 10.5 Wins (+100)

This is not a knock on the Dawgs, but an acknowledgement of just how difficult this schedule will be. Now that divisions are gone, Georgia faces four teams that were part of the old SEC West, plus Texas. Two of those western foes include Alabama and Mississippi, and neither will come to Athens. The best team that will go between the hedges this year is Tennessee, which means Georgia won’t face any breathers during this schedule.

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And at 10.5 wins, this schedule doesn’t allow for Georgia to have more than one hiccup. To pull this off, the Dawgs have to win two out of three in Tuscaloosa, Oxford and Austin, plus avoid stubbing a toe anywhere else on the schedule. There’s a trip to Lexington, Florida in Jacksonville and the aforementioned Tennessee game at Sanford. Even the nonconference doesn’t provide a respite; Georgia chose to open against Clemson in Atlanta.

The good news for Kirby Smart and the Bulldogs is they probably will not need to reach Atlanta to reach the playoff. Georgia will be someone nobody wants to face in the playoff, but the schedule has a good chance to keep it out of the SEC title game.

Missouri Over 9.5 Wins (+135)

Take almost everything that I just wrote about Georgia, flip it, and you’ve got Missouri’s situation in 2024. The Tigers have a laughably weak schedule for the first month, facing Murray State, Buffalo, Boston College and Vanderbilt, all at home. The only game that could reasonably cause trouble before Oct. 26 at Alabama is Texas A&M, which has some rebuilding to do after the end of the Jimbo Fisher era. If the Tigers get out of College Station unbeaten, they should roll into Tuscaloosa at 7-0.

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The rest of the slate is manageable. There’s no margin for error for the Tigers, as they can only afford one other defeat outside of the likely one at Alabama. Missouri has a veteran offense and a coach that feels comfortable with what he’s got in place, and that should lead to the Tigers being favored in at least 10 games in 2024.

Florida Under 4.5 Wins (+130)

Billy Napier really needs some understanding bosses with what he’s got on the slate this year. Unfortunately, patience and Florida go together about as well as snowstorms and Florida. (Then again, the Panthers did just win the Stanley Cup.) Out of Florida’s past five coaches, Urban Meyer is the only one who made it past four years in Gainesville. Napier might make it five for six unless the powers-that-be at Florida realize just how brutal this slate is.

Out of eight SEC games, the easiest one is at Mississippi State. The Gators will see Georgia, Texas, LSU, Mississippi, Tennessee, Kentucky and Texas A&M, and they did themselves no favors in the non-conference schedule. Florida deserves credit for going out and playing tough teams this year, but the Gators probably overdid it. With UCF’s ascension to the Big 12, Florida now has three Power 4 opponents, as it will host Miami and UCF along with Samford. The fourth non-conference game is Florida State in Tallahassee. Good luck.