Best Futures Bets In the Big 12

BEST FUTURES BETS IN THE BIG 12 — No power league underwent more change than the Big 12, which was 14 last year. With Texas and Oklahoma gone to the SEC, the league is now at 16 with the additions of Colorado, Utah, Arizona and Arizona State. And that sets up the league for a truly wide open scramble, as there’s no real heavyweight left out of the 16 schools in this league.

That means there’s good value as well as a lot of risk at play. Here are a few top bets in the Big 12.

Kansas State to Win the Conference, +380

Whether it was a reward for being the most recent champion still in the league or just luck of the draw, the schedulemakers smiled on the Powercats this season. Utah’s not on the schedule, and Arizona and Oklahoma State both have to come to Manhattan. Making things even easier, the Arizona game won’t count in the league standings. The teams had already scheduled a non-conference series before the desert Wildcats joined the Big 12, and decided to just play it out rather than muck up their slates.

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Out of the projected five weakest teams in the Big 12, three of them ended up hosting K-State. The Wildcats’ toughest road games are at West Virginia and Iowa State. While those aren’t gimmes by any means, they’re manageable. K-State brings back an experienced defense and a strong quarterback in Avery Johnson, and the Wildcats picked up running back Dylan Edwards from Colorado. Kansas State should find its way to the Big 12 title game, where it would likely be favored. Taking the Wildcats to qualify for the league title game at plus money (+150) is a solid bet, but this play offers more value.

Oklahoma State to Make the Big 12 Title Game, +250

Be warned that this is risky. Oklahoma State opens Big 12 play with Utah at home and Kansas State away, which could sink the Cowboys before they even get going. But if Oklahoma State can manage a split, it has the talent to reach the league title game. The Cowboys’ biggest issue at the start of last season was offense, and this year brings back an experienced offensive group that showed it could do the job once it came together.

If the Cowboys can survive the early meat grinder, things ease up in October. TCU, Baylor, BYU and Colorado are hardly frightening road games, and Oklahoma State won’t play Arizona or Iowa State. The biggest risks here are two: first, will 7-2 be enough to get the Cowboys to the title game? Second, will Oklahoma State have the mental fortitude to overcome a possible 0-2 start and catch up with the rest of the league? If the Cowboys stay confident in their system, they have a path.

Arizona State Under 4.5 Wins (-160)

Kenny Dillingham has things headed in the right direction in Tempe. But Herm Edwards made a mess at Arizona State, and the Sun Devils’ schedule in year one in the Big 12 does them no favors. The projected best four teams in the Big 12 include Kansas State, Utah, Oklahoma State and Arizona. All four of them appear on Arizona State’s schedule, and Utah’s the only one coming to Tempe. Obviously, Arizona State was never going to avoid Arizona, but seeing trips to Manhattan and Stillwater can’t have pleased anyone in maroon.

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Things don’t get a lot easier outside of that. A home game with Mississippi State won’t be easy, and the Sun Devils doubly put themselves at risk by agreeing to play at Texas State five days later. Not only are the Bobcats just as talented as they are, but this marks the first time a Power 4 opponent has visited San Marcos with the stadium fully opened. (Baylor came to Texas State in 2021, but COVID restrictions were in place.) It’s hard to find five wins with this slate.

Colorado Under 5.5 Wins (+120)

Deion Sanders said 2023 was as bad as he’s going to be in Boulder. The schedule says otherwise. This slate is brutal, starting with FCS powerhouse North Dakota State. The Bison have been so good for so long that it’s been almost impossible for them to get games because FBS teams know they’ll probably lose. This game’s likely to be a toss-up, and things get no better from there. Colorado plays a pair of road games at Nebraska and Colorado State, both of whom should have beaten the Buffaloes last year.

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When the Buffaloes get into Big 12 play, they’ll have home games with Kansas State, Oklahoma State and Utah, plus road battles with Arizona, Texas Tech and Kansas. It’s hard to see more than two or three league wins for Colorado, simply because the Buffaloes don’t have line play and don’t have much of a defense. Until Sanders figures out that he can’t build a roster with a quick fix at this level, the Buffaloes will continue to struggle.

Iowa State Over 7.5 Wins (-120)

As long as the Cyclones haven’t developed a bout of Scott Frost disease, they should get back in the Big 12 mix this year. Out of Iowa State’s past 11 Big 12 defeats, seven of them came by a single score. The Cyclones seemed to figure it out in the second half last season, winning five of their final seven contests. The two losses were by seven to Kansas and 10 to Texas, both reasonable defeats for a mid-level Big 12 squad.

The good news is that Iowa State was young last season and returns more players from last year than anyone else in the nation. If the Cyclones have used the lessons well from last season, eight or nine wins seems a likely outcome.