Best Futures Bets In the American
BEST FUTURES BETS IN THE AMERICAN — The American was once easily the strongest Group of 5 conference, regularly claiming the auto-bid to the New Year’s Six games. And this league regularly gave Power 5 teams fits, as Houston won a Peach Bowl, Tulane won a Cotton Bowl, Cincinnati made the playoff and UCF won a national championship.
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But the league has changed a lot and seen its best teams go to other conferences. SMU was the latest to leave, as the Mustangs will play in the ACC after winning last year’s American championship. Here’s a look at the best futures bets in the American.
Tulane to Win the Conference, +350
Jon Sumrall got a nice gift in his first year in New Orleans. He inherited a pretty good team from Willie Fritz, he brought some quality talent over from Troy and he’s got a schedule that could land the Wave back in the American title game.
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Tulane drew both Memphis and South Florida at home, and East Carolina and Texas-San Antonio are nowhere to be seen. It feels like the American decided that Tulane is its best shot to make the playoff and gave it a schedule to help it increase its chances. The Wave still have to get at least a split with Kansas State and Oklahoma to pull that trick off, but they should at least be in good shape for the conference title game. If they get back, they’ll be pretty determined to win it.
UTSA to Make the Title Game, +220
If Tulane drew a favorable schedule, UTSA’s is even better. The Roadrunners have been the one C-USA import to punch above its weight in its new league, and their reward is a schedule that sets them up to potentially go 11-1. (The one certain loss is at Texas.) They get Memphis at home and don’t face Tulane or South Florida, leaving a trip to East Carolina as the one troublesome spot.
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Fortunately for UTSA, nobody has poached Jeff Traylor away, and only one option seems in position to try anytime soon. With Texas A&M choosing to bring back Mike Elko and Houston opting for Willie Fritz, every power conference school in Texas is now either happy with its coach or in the first three years with a new leader. The Roadrunners will be nervously watching Arkansas, because if Sam Pittman fails this year, Traylor’s probably going back to Fayetteville. But if this is his San Antonio swan song, it should be a strong one.
Memphis Under 9 Wins (-130)
At least the Tigers didn’t draw East Carolina? Ryan Silverfield seriously needs to check if he ticked someone off at the American’s front office, because Memphis’ schedule is brutal. The consensus top teams in the league include Tulane, UTSA and South Florida, and Memphis somehow managed to draw all three of them on the road.
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But that’s only three defeats, and we need four for this bet to cash. I present to you Sept. 14, when the Tigers travel to Tallahassee to take on Florida State. They also scheduled a home game with two-time Sun Belt champion Troy. Good luck, guys.
East Carolina Over 6 Wins (-135)
East Carolina should not have been a two-win team last season. The Pirates lost four one-score games and had the misfortune to have Michigan and App State on the schedule in non-conference games. This year, they scheduled softer, trading in Michigan for Liberty and getting App State at home. The Pirates are never easy to beat in Greenville, as many an ACC side has found out.
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They won’t see Tulane, Memphis or South Florida, and they draw UTSA at home. There’s a chance (not a great one) that East Carolina’s schedule could accidentally land it in the league title game at 8-0 (and +550). More realistically, the Pirates get five or six wins in the American and get back to a bowl game.
 South Florida Over 7 Wins (-120)
Alex Golesh has this thing going in the right direction in Tampa. (If he can get my wife to care about college football by resurrecting her Bulls, it would make Saturdays much more enjoyable for me.) South Florida will have some issues this year because of its schedule, as the Bulls have to go to Alabama and host Miami. Things also don’t start great in the American, as USF draws consecutive games with Tulane and Memphis.
After that, however, the schedule opens up. USF’s final six games are against very reasonable opposition, and there’s plenty of reason for the Bulls to think 8-4 is possible. That won’t get them in the American title game, but it will get them back to a bowl game.
