Best Futures Bets In Conference USA
BEST FUTURES BETS IN CONFERENCE USA — While other Group of 5 teams reloaded after getting picked apart, Conference USA just took whoever it could get. The best thing you can say about C-USA is that it avoided the fate of the Pac-12, as it still exists. But this is a really bad league with one good team and a collection of castoffs.
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And that one good team, Liberty, got its doors blown off by Oregon in the Fiesta Bowl. Getting there was a great accomplishment for the Flames, but now they have to build off that and prove they’ve got staying power. They should be able to win the conference, but there’s little value in backing them at -200. Here’s a look at the best bets for Conference USA.
Jacksonville State to Reach the Title Game, +110
This is a tough pick to make, because Jacksonville State has to go to Western Kentucky. (We’re assuming Liberty wins the league. It’s basically the same as Bayern Munich to win the Bundesliga.) But the Hilltoppers have their own problem with the schedule: they’ve got to go to Liberty the week before the finale with Jacksonville State.
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The Gamecocks also go to Lynchburg, but they’ve got three weak opponents in between Liberty and Western Kentucky to allow them to recover. With Liberty being head and shoulders above the rest of C-USA, a week isn’t likely to be enough time to recover from facing the Flames, especially on the road. There’s a good chance that game beats the Hilltoppers twice, and Jacksonville State becomes the beneficiary.
Kennesaw State Under 2.5 Wins, -125
This could get really ugly. Kennesaw State is a new FBS team that wasn’t very good in FCS last season. The Owls played an independent schedule against six FCS schools last year and won a grand total of none of them. All three wins came against schools in Division II or lower, and Kennesaw State hasn’t beaten a Division I team since 2022.
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To make matters worse, the Owls have a brutal schedule in year one. The nonconference schedule includes San Jose State, Texas-San Antonio and Louisiana, all of whom have been good Group of 5 programs lately. Even the FCS game is problematic, as Tennessee-Martin is an FCS power that’s likely to be near the top of the Ohio Valley Conference. When you’re likely to be an underdog against an FCS opponent, that’s a problem.
UTEP Over 4 Wins (-125)
UTEP athletic director Jim Senter is either a sadist or badly needs to fund his athletic department. The Miners have an absolutely brutal non-conference schedule that includes road games at Nebraska, Colorado State and Tennessee. There’s also a coaching change, as Scotty Walden comes over from Austin Peay to try to win in El Paso.
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This UTEP team will look a little like last year’s Austin Peay squad, which isn’t terrible. The Governors went 9-3 last year in FCS and were competitive with Tennessee in an early-season loss. If they can adjust to Conference USA, they’ll have a reasonable chance to top this total. It helps that they’ll play both Southern Utah and Kennesaw State at home, meaning they just have to find two more wins. Florida International, Sam Houston and Middle Tennessee all come to West Texas, and the short trip up I-10 to New Mexico State offers another winnable game. It’s not going to be pretty, but it just might result in five wins.
Louisiana Tech Under 5 Wins (-115)
Do you get the feeling that maybe Skip Holtz wasn’t the problem in Ruston? Prior to the pandemic, the Bulldogs played good football, going to six straight bowls and winning around eight to 10 games per season. There wasn’t a conference title, but there were lots of reasons for Louisiana Tech to be proud of its football program.
And then the pandemic hit, and Holtz had one mediocre year and one disastrous 3-9 season. The Bulldogs panicked and fired him, and since then, all he’s done is turn the Birmingham Stallions into a spring football dynasty. Meanwhile, Louisiana Tech has not bettered the 3-9 mark that Holtz finished with.
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Things might not get any better this season. Somehow, Louisiana Tech missed Liberty (how you fail to schedule nine conference games as a 10-team conference is beyond logic), but the Bulldogs face a brutal three-game stretch of Jacksonville State, Western Kentucky and Arkansas in November, along with a road game at NC State and Tulsa at home. The Bulldogs aren’t likely to be very good on defense, and they’ve got very little margin for error to reach five wins. Most likely, four is as good as it gets this year.
