Best Futures Bets For the Independents
BEST FUTURES BETS FOR THE INDEPENDENTS — Nobody had a more difficult offseason than the remnants of the Pac-12. Oregon State and Washington State are technically still a conference, although that’s a mere designation. The Beavers and the Cougars are reluctant independents playing a Mountain West schedule, although they won’t be part of the conference.
Oregon State will play seven Mountain West opponents and Washington State eight, as both schools already had agreements secured to play Mountain West teams before the Pac-12’s collapse. The rest of their slates are mostly Power 4 opponents, as both were able to secure continuations of their series with their in-state rivals.
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Elsewhere, Notre Dame has its sights set on the playoff, while Connecticut and Massachusetts are just hoping to somehow end the season in a bowl game. Here’s a look at the best bets for the independents.
Notre Dame to Miss the Playoff, +135
The Irish might want to either schedule tougher or join a conference, if this slate plays out as projected. Notre Dame just didn’t put a lot of meat on this schedule, given how many of its required games are against bad opponents and/or in South Bend. Somehow, the Irish got all five ACC opponents to come to Notre Dame this season (it helped that Stanford’s now an ACC member), and they’ll only play three true road games. Given that one of those is Purdue, who’s projected to finish 18th in the Big Ten Plus Eight, that’s not moving the needle.
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To reach the playoff, Notre Dame probably has to go 11-1 or better. There’s just not enough here, unless the Irish can defeat Florida State. But even that carries its own pitfalls, as losing to someone else would offset any accolades from beating the Seminoles. Winning the season opener at Texas A&M is a must, as is the season finale at USC. Lose either of those games, and Florida State becomes must-win instead of nice-to-have. Lose to the Seminoles, and the Irish are probably spending the winter in a second-level bowl game.
Oregon State Over 7.5 Wins, +105
There’s good news for the Beavers: all they have to do to make a bowl game is defend their Corvallis fortress. Oregon State hasn’t lost at home to anyone but Washington in the past two seasons, and that was a Huskies squad that reached the national title game. Beyond that, they have to find two wins out of San Diego State, California, Air Force and Nevada. It’s probably a safe bet that they aren’t beating Oregon at home or winning at Boise State.
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The Beavers lost a lot from last year, including coach Jonathan Smith, but there’s still enough here to manage this schedule. Oregon State will definitely be in a bowl if it gets eligible thanks to keeping the Pac-12’s bowl tie-ins, and odds are that the Beavers can get to eight or nine wins.
Washington State Under 7.5 Wins (+100)
Somehow, both Oregon State and Washington State drew games on the blue turf this season. And that’s going to make a difference as Washington State tries to get the six wins it needs to get back to a bowl.
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The Cougars’ schedule does it no favors. They’ll play a “neutral” site game against Washington that’s six miles from the Huskies’ campus, and they’ll host Texas Tech and travel to Oregon State. With several new faces, there’s little reason to expect the Cougars to do better than 1-3 in those games. And if that happens, they’ll have almost no margin for error the rest of the way.
Road games at Fresno State and San Diego State, plus a home game with San Jose State, are troublesome spots. There’s too much that can go wrong to expect eight wins from this team. Seven is the more likely number.
Connecticut Over 4.5 Wins (-135)
The Huskies’ slate is all about finding that fifth win. Merrimack should be a victory, as should Buffalo and Temple. That leaves two to go. Even though they have to go on the road, they should still be better than Massachusetts.
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Finding the last win is the big challenge. But Rice and Georgia State both come to East Hartford, and the Huskies don’t leave New England from mid-September until after Halloween. That kind of continuity makes five wins plausible.
Massachusetts Under 3.5 Wins (+100)
Just bet the over when it comes to the Minutemen. Massachusetts still can’t tackle in space, which means teams are going to run all over the defense. And that makes this very tricky to find more than three wins on this slate.
First, there’s the fact that Don Brown has only won four games in the past two years total. Second, this schedule is brutal for a team looking to build. It’s clear that Massachusetts’ administration is more interested in collecting paychecks than wins. The Minutemen play five MAC foes, and only Eastern Michigan comes to Amherst.
What’s the rest of the slate look like? Missouri, Georgia, Liberty, Connecticut, Mississippi State and FCS teams Central Connecticut and Wagner. The Minutemen should beat the two Northeast Conference schools, but after that, finding another win is tough. Three wins would be an accomplishment.
