Behind the Hedges: Ohio State vs. Georgia Picks and Predictions

The Dawgs

Georgia is led by Heisman-finalist Stetson Bennett, who surprised everyone by winning the National Championship last year.

He won the Orange Bowl and National Championship MVP awards and will look to add a Peach Bowl MVP to his accolades.

He gets back his most talented receiver in AD Mitchell, who is finally healthy after missing almost the entire year. However, UGA’s leading receiver Ladd McConkey is dealing with a leg injury that may limit him during the game. While he has been practicing, he was not seen in Wednesday’s practice session that was open to the media.

The Dawgs also boast the two best tight ends in the national in Darnell Washington and Brock Bowers. Washington is an athletic freak, who has the size to play offensive tackle if he wanted. Instead, he catches balls over the middle and pancakes linebackers at the second level. Bowers will have several plays dialed up just for him, which could be over the middle, fades to the outside, or an end-around in the back field.

Rushing Attack

UGA uses 3 running backs in rotation. Kenny McIntosh is their primary back, who has great hands out of the backfield. Twice this year, he has led the team in receiving yards, including against Oregon to start the season. Daijun Edwards runs between the tackles as well as anyone, finding holes in tight spaces. Kendal Milton is physically their largest back, and has come on strong at the end of the season. Finally healthy in what feels like two years, Milton has railed off long touchdown runs in the 4th quarter in the last couple of games. 

UGA’s offensive line is a strength as well. Their center and left tackle will head to the NFL after this year. Their starting right tackle may be injured or limited, but the back up has enough experience and plenty of talent. Where UGA can be vulnerable on their offensive line is their guards, who have inconsistent play. 

Defense

Defensively, UGA has one guy you have to account for on each play: Jalen Carter. Carter will be a top 5 draft pick next year, if not the first off the board. He is a game-wrecker.

While he does take some plays off, he also has a gear he can hit on key downs that no one has been able to consistently stop yet. If he can prey on Ohio State’s interior line, CJ Stroud is in for a long day, and the Bucks won’t be able to run as effectively. 

The other key playmakers from Georgia come in the safety positions.

Senior Chris Smith makes big plays in the biggest games. He had the pick-6 against Clemson last year, the returned field goal for a touchdown in the SEC Championship, and a pick against Oregon. He rarely misses assignments and has developed enough instincts to have great closing speed when needed.

Freshman safety Malaki Starks is a super-star in the making. He will play a key role in this game in shutting down the Buckeye passing game. CB Kelee Ringo also will have his hands full covering Harrison. Ringo is asked to do more than UGA’s other corners, so he has had up-and-down performances this year. DB Javon Bullard is also a playmaker for the Dawgs.

Match Up

Ohio State will need to hit some explosive plays in the passing game for the Buckeyes to win this game.

While all eyes will be on Harrison and Ringo, the more important match up might actually be Javon Bullard vs Emeka Egbuka. Ringo and a safety will likely bracket Harrison for much of the game, so can Bullard shut down Egbuka in the slot?

Bullard is excellent at tackling and covering short routes. He can be vulnerable on the deeper routes.

Meanwhile, I actually think Ringo matches up better against Harrison than some may think. Harrison is big, not a burner. Ringo’s struggles less with big receivers and more when he can’t match their speed and recover after getting beat.

Receiving Core

The Ohio State receivers vs. the UGA DB’s is certainly a match up to watch and what everyone has been and will be talking about during the game. I expect Ohio State’s receivers to get theirs against UGA. Harrison could easily have a 100 yard game. UGA needs to make sure he doesn’t go for 180 yards and 2 touchdowns. 

The Trenches

One key match up that I don’t see people talking about that will have to go Ohio State’s way for them to win is their D-line vs UGA’s O-line.

If Zach Harrison and J.T. Tuimoloau can pressure Stetson Bennett into making some poor throws, UGA’s dynamic passing offense can be stopped. UGA has successfully protected Stetson all year.

What happens if he takes 3 sacks and throws an INT because of pressure? The whole game can change.

If Harrison and Tuimoloau can’t get home against UGA, Bennett should feast against this secondary and linebackers who don’t show the same level of speed. Ohio State will blitz heavily during the game and UGA will have answers for that. But what if they don’t have to blitz to get to Bennett? To me, this will be one of the key factors in this game. 

Who Can Run the Ball?

Ultimately, every single time that the media talks all about the passing attack of one teams, in reality the running success of the teams will actually determine who wins.

Whichever team is better able to establish the run against the other I think is more likely to win this game than the team who finds more success through the air.

UGA has the advantage here. Tuimoloau is a good pass rusher, but is not as effective against the run. The Dawgs should run at him a few times. Ohio State runs outside of the tackles more than Georgia is used to defending.

One potential problem area for the Dawgs is facing against their best run blocker in RT Dawand Jones. Jones can maul his defenders, and UGA is missing their best player to set the edge. UGA needs to find a consistent answer for setting the edge against Jones, or Ohio State will find success in the run. 

Tendencies

Another factor for Ohio State’s success will be them breaking tendencies.

CJ Stroud doesn’t do as well under pressure and often refuses to take open running lanes. In this game, Stroud doesn’t have to run the ball 12 times. But he needs to take off when presented with an opportunity so that Georgia has to account for his legs. 4-5 well-timed runs on 2nd or 3rd down could help the Buckeyes immensely.

If Stroud won’t run, he’ll need to be consistently accurate all game long. He’s certainly capable of doing so, but he also heavily relies on rhythm passing routes for his success. Get him out of rhythm, and he’s not quite as good. However, even when things begin to break down, he has a great bail-out option in just throwing it up for Harrison to make a play. UGA will do everything they can to take away that first rhythm throw for Stroud. 

Ohio State is one of the best teams in scoring touchdowns in the red zone. Georgia’s defense is one of the best red-zone defenses in the country. So, who wins this match up? If UGA hold Ohio State to 3 points instead of 7 a couple of times when the Buckeyes get into the red zone, that should be enough for the Dawgs to win. 

Prediction

Ohio State is the most talented team top-to-bottom that is left in the playoff. In many ways, they have everything you’d need to beat UGA: a talented QB, NFL quality receivers, some defensive studs, and depth.

For comparison, LSU tends to keep their interior defensive linemen in for the entire game because they lack depth in that role. Ohio State is like Georgia in that they will rotate in a bunch of guys to keep players fresh. 

However, I still believe that UGA is the best team and the best coached team in the nation.

If the Dawgs bring their A-game, they beat anyone. Despite the challenges that Ohio State brings, I think Coach Smart will have his defense ready and Todd Monken will have the offense dialed in.

Every time that I have doubted Georgia this year, they have proved me wrong. I have my doubts, but I’m going to assume they continue to bring their best performances for the biggest games.