Baylor vs. LSU Expert Pick and Prediction – December 31, 2024

BAYLOR VS. LSU EXPERT PICK AND PREDICTION – December 31, 2024 — The Texas Bowl has become the Dave Aranda Bowl, as Aranda now faces his previous employer. The Baylor coach was the LSU defensive coordinator in 2019, before he left for the head job in Waco.

And LSU really hasn’t solved its defense ever since then. The Bayou Bengals have been kind of middling on that side of the ball since Aranda departed, which has led to them being a three-loss team each year under Brian Kelly.

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LSU did right the ship somewhat over the final two games, but beating Oklahoma and Vanderbilt isn’t going to impress anybody. And Baylor certainly isn’t going to find that impressive, not with how far the Bears have come. Baylor rides a six-game winning streak, turning 0-3 in the league to one game short of tying for first place.

The Bears weren’t quite up to par with the league’s best, as their three losses came to Iowa State, BYU and Colorado. But they were clearly strong enough to handle the rest of the league, and LSU has played more like the second tier of the Big 12 than a top squad.

The Odds

Kickoff

When: Tuesday, December 31 at 3:30 p.m.

Where: NRG Stadium, Houston 

TV: ESPN

Public Bets: Unavailable

Public Money: Unavailable

Baylor vs. LSU In-Season Trends

If you’ve been betting on Baylor during the second half of the season, you’ve been doing very well. The Bears have won six in a row, and they covered in all of them. Prior to those games, Baylor had failed to cover in three straight, losing to the top teams in the Big 12 and failing to cover in any of them.

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LSU has covered just once in its past five games, and that only because the bookmakers hadn’t turned on Oklahoma. The Tigers’ three losses were all by double digits, and the under has cashed in seven of their past nine games.

Weather

Temperatures will hit 69 degrees, so this is going to be a comfortable day. If the weather changes, the roof will close.

The Difference-Makers

When you have a back who’s getting multiple touchdowns per game, you have to keep feeding him. Baylor has that in Bryson Washington, who rushed for nine touchdowns in the final four games of the season. Washington topped 6.7 yards per carry in three of his final four games, including 7.5 YPC against TCU.

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Garrett Nussmeier tore apart Wisconsin in the Tigers’ bowl game last year, throwing for 395 yards and three scores in the win. He’ll likely be attacking from the beginning here.

The Pick

Baylor has been the hottest team this side of South Carolina. While LSU beat South Carolina, that was a much different LSU team and a much different South Carolina squad. This version of the Tigers hasn’t been anywhere near that impressive, and getting shredded by Texas A&M, Alabama and Florida showed that.

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Most likely, LSU’s going to spend this game wishing that it had Aranda back on its sideline. The Bears have won six in a row for a reason and make sense here.