Baseball Betting Strategy

BASEBALL BETTING STRATEGY – Baseball is one of the trickiest sports to try to figure out on a daily basis. In football and basketball, the worst team beats the best team very infrequently without some kind of extenuating factor. In baseball, however, one good pitcher or one bad one can totally change a bet. There’s also the fact that a good player can have a day or two where they have no impact for their team. Remember, this is a sport where if you fail seven times out of 10, you get a statue in your honor.

With that in mind, there are some strategies you can use to maximize your chances of finding a winning bet. Here are a few of my favorite ways to consider baseball betting strategy:

Analyze the Pitchers

Pitchers tend to be far more consistent than hitters. When a pitcher has success against a lineup, the hitters are the ones who have to make the adjustments. They’ve got to figure out what they need to do to hit his pitch, while the pitcher is going over what worked well last time and what they can do to build off that success.

That’s why when you see someone like Pablo Lopez against a light-hitting team, you’re likely to want to play the under. Lopez excels at going through lineups twice, and he usually doesn’t have many bad outings. He’s likely going to get his outs and post a line pretty close to what he usually does. If he does, the under is likely to be in play.

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Analyzing the pitchers doesn’t stop with the starters. You’ll also want to check out the bullpen and make sure they’re not going to tank a good start for you. A great example is the Philadelphia Phillies. Their bullpen has been notorious for being one of the worst in the majors for several seasons. The best thing to do with Phillies games is to make a five-inning bet and get out before the bullpen can screw it up. Knowing how the pitching staff will handle each part of the game can set you up to make the most optimal bet in each situation.

Check the Weather

Weather plays a role in baseball betting strategy just as much as it does in football. The way the wind is blowing and how powerful it is can wreak havoc on an otherwise strong pitcher. A strong wind blowing toward the fences can turn easy fly outs into cheap home runs, while a strong wind blowing in can keep well-hit balls from carrying over the fence.

You always want to know how powerful the wind is and which way it’s heading. If the winds are working with the hitters, check out the kind of team that’s at the plate and the kind of pitcher the starter is. A ground-ball pitcher and a team that hits singles and manufactures runs won’t be affected much by a strong wind. However, a homer-happy lineup against a fly-ball pitcher is a recipe for an over. You can also use the weather to take a lesser pitcher if the wind favors them. A fly ball pitcher working with the wind at his back has a chance to put up a great day if he doesn’t have to worry about the home run possibility.

Contact vs. Power

When I’m looking at prop plays, I like to know what kind of hitting style the batting team has. Some teams preach the importance of manufacturing runs and winning games on baserunning, such as San Diego. Others believe in the idea of “three true outcomes” of walks, home runs and strikeouts. These teams are free-swingers and rarely let many pitches go by. That means that pitchers who miss bats have a big advantage against these lineups.

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Teams with high batting averages don’t tend to be good bets for strikeout overs. They’re concerned with putting the ball in play and letting the fielders try to get them out. When you see a team that tends to hit the ball regularly, that’s probably going to continue.

Ride Hot Streaks

Over the course of 162 games, baseball players look for any edge that they can find. And that means they believe in the power of a hot streak. When they feel loose and confident at the plate, they’re capable of some pretty great things. Hot players are usually good bets to get at least one hit on the day, and if they’re in the right park, they can make a good play for going for multiple total bases.

Find Lesser-Known Props

One of my favorite baseball props to play is total bases. Total bases works well for me because you can usually win it on one extra base hit, but that’s not your only way to win. A good singles hitter can come up with a pair of hits and cash the bet that way.

Avoid Gimmick Props

Prop bets are key to your baseball betting strategy, but you don’t want to go overboard and bet the gimmick plays. Betting on a player to hit a home run comes with great odds for a reason: they don’t happen often. Even a slugger like Aaron Judge will only hit a home run about 50 games in a 162-game season. The fact that nobody has reached 80 home runs in a year, even in the steroid era, tells you one basic principle of mathematics: Every hitter has at least 50% of their games where they don’t hit a home run. These kinds of bets are fun, but they’re not great strategy.

The no-run first inning or yes-run first inning bet is also not a favorite, even though it’s also a popular bet. People like it for the obvious reason: you can get in and out very quickly. But it’s hard to predict any kind of edge on scoring a run that early in the game. You’re counting on the 3-4-5 hitters to drive in a run, and that’s if one of the first two hitters gets on to give them a good pitch to hit. It’s not a bet worth playing often.

Remember, baseball betting is hard. Every day, there’s someone playing, and that grind sometimes makes it tough to find winners. But as with most betting strategies, if you’re putting in the work and doing your research, you’ll find success in the long run.