Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays Expert Pick and Prediction – June 20, 2023

BALTIMORE ORIOLES VS. TAMPA BAY RAYS EXPERT PICK AND PREDICTION – June 20, 2023 — Making their first visit of the year to Tropicana Field, the Orioles have a huge chance to prove themselves as one of the elite teams in the American League.

The Orioles took two of three from the Rays in Maryland last month, and they’re proving to be the Rays’ nearest challenger in the AL East. Ultimately, midsummer series don’t come much bigger than this one.

As for Tampa Bay, the Florida side has hit a bit of a lull after being considered potentially unbeatable not long ago. They saw a recent seven-game win streak end in a defeat to Texas on June 10:

Ahead of this series, the Rays are just 4-5 over their past nine. Notably, the Rays just dropped two of three to San Diego, and visibly struggled over in California altogether. Oakland gave them real problems too, though the Athletics’ first decent crowd of the year is a mitigating factor.

Even in that stretch, though, the one thing they could count on was Tyler Glasnow. When the Rays needed a sharp performance, Glasnow stepped up and gave Tampa Bay a victory, ending Oakland’s seven-game surge and giving the Rays their third win of the season with him on the mound out of four starts.

Glasnow didn’t get going until May 27, but he’s proven sharp in his starts. With a chance to really put some ground between themselves and the Orioles, this is a game the Rays need.

The Odds

First Pitch

When: Tuesday, June 20th at 6:40 p.m. EDT

Where: Tropicana Field, St. Petersburg, Fla.

Starting Pitchers: Kyle Bradish, BAL (2-3, 3.90 ERA, 52 K’s) vs. Tyler Glasnow, TB (2-0, 3.43 ERA, 26 K’s) 

Public Bets: 78% on Tampa Bay

Public Money: 81% on Tampa Bay

Odds courtesy of DraftKings, as of June 20th, 2023

Baltimore vs. Tampa Bay In-Season Trends

The way this series has worked, both teams hit fairly well in Tampa Bay but don’t produce much of anything when they’re in Baltimore. Over their past four meetings, the UNDER has cashed four straight. However, that includes the three-game set in Baltimore where the teams scored a combined 12 runs.

In their past six games in Tampa Bay, the teams have gone OVER five times, which is a trend that might be worth following. However, the trend of the Orioles getting routed in Tampa Bay probably isn’t.

Baltimore also has just 12 wins in its past 51 trips to St. Petersburg, but that’s in part because the Rays have been a model franchise for the past six years. By contrast, the Orioles have been in the midst of a ghastly rebuild.

Regardless, the teams are finally on even footing for the first time in years. Additionally, this marks Baltimore’s first trip to Tampa since returning to competitive play.

Players to Watch

With Ryan Mountcastle injured, Baltimore has to find some other offense from somewhere. That’s likely to be Adley Rutschman, who has hit safely in six straight games and had a home run in a Baltimore win over the Rays at Camden Yards.

He went 2-for-10 in that series and scored in both of the Orioles’ wins over Tampa Bay, with highlights from the latest clash shown below:

Overall, he’s going to have to have a big series if Baltimore’s going to get something out of this trip.

Meanwhile, the Rays get contributions from all across the lineup, so it’s tough to single out any one player to watch. However, Yandy Diaz ranks third in creating runs and sits 11th in the majors in batting average. That makes him the most likely Tampa Bay player to produce here.

The Pick

Baltimore’s coming into this game at less than full strength with Mountcastle on the IL. That’s not ideal when facing Glasnow, nor is it ideal with Tampa Bay needing to make a statement on its home turf.

In conclusion, the Orioles are likely to keep things close and get a little offense out of its lineup. But make no mistake; Baltimore needs to be at full strength to handle this assignment.