Baltimore Orioles vs. New York Yankees: Expert Pick and Prediction – July 3, 2023

BALTIMORE ORIOLES VS. NEW YORK YANKEES EXPERT PICK AND PREDICTION – July 3, 2023 — There’s a big reason why the Yankees are looking up at the Orioles in the standings: Baltimore’s done its job against the AL East and New York hasn’t.

The Yankees have dropped four in a row against division rivals. Whether or not they make it five may depend much on how one man follows up on a perfect game. That man, of course, is Domingo German…

First Pitch / The Odds

When: Monday, July 3rd at 7:05 p.m. EDT

Where: Yankee Stadium, New York

Starting Pitchers: Tyler Wells, BAL (6-4, 3.21 ERA, 95 K’s) vs. Domingo German, NYY (5-5, 4.54 ERA, 58 K’s) 

Public Bets: 51% on New York

Public Money: 51% on Baltimore

Odds courtesy of DraftKings, as of July 3rd, 2023.

Baltimore Orioles vs. New York Yankees: Starting Pitchers

Domingo German now faces the most difficult test for a Major League Baseball pitcher: the start following a perfect game. It’s hard enough to follow up a no-hitter because you’re trying to build off one of the best starts you’ll ever throw. But doing it after a perfect game is infinitely more difficult because of the impossible previous standard.

For German, it’s even more challenging because he wasn’t pitching well at all before his perfect game. Over his two prior starts, he recorded just 16 outs and was gone before the fourth inning both times.

If he gets lit up again, it’s probably not going to go well for the Yankees. That’s because they’re facing the Orioles and Tyler Wells, who has both been a model of consistency and will be looking to make up for his last visit to Yankee Stadium.

When the teams met in the Bronx on May 24, Wells made it through five innings, but gave up five runs in the process for his worst start of the season. The Orioles bailed him out by teeing off on the New York bullpen, but that start appears to have stuck with Wells.

Since that night in Yankee Stadium, he’s given up 11 runs in 35 2/3 innings, and never more than two in a start.

That’s the good news for Baltimore. The bad news is Wells has never had much success against New York. Over the past two seasons, his ERA is 5.40 against the Yankees and 3.46 against everyone else.

Tyler Wells is going to figure out how to pitch to New York eventually. Even if that’s not this game, the Orioles have already shown they know how to get into the Yankee bullpen. Baltimore scored 11 runs off the Yankees after the fifth inning in May, and it’s highly questionable as to how much German will really give New York.

Wells has shown much more consistency than German. That makes him the much safer play.

In-Season Trends

While the Yankees are just 11-15 against the division, the Orioles are 14-9 and have gone 10-3 in their past 13 against the AL East. They haven’t lost a series to a division rival since April, and that includes taking two of three last time in the Bronx.

The Yankees don’t hit very well against the East, so the UNDER has cashed in six of seven against divisional opponents. That includes a 3-1 loss to Baltimore in the teams’ most recent meeting:

What’s more, the Yankees’ offense hasn’t done much hitting at home lately. In their past six games at Yankee Stadium, the UNDER has cashed four out of six, with one push and an over cashing only because the Mariners lit up German for 10 runs in his most recent home start.

Players to Watch

Gunnar Henderson seemed a bit overwhelmed in Yankee Stadium as a rookie. As a second-year man, the third baseman looks much more comfortable in New York. When the Orioles came to the Bronx, Henderson reached base in all three games, hitting .625 for the series while scoring three runs and driving in three runs. As long as he’s in the lineup, he’s a good bet for a hit or two.

Gleyber Torres comes in with hits in six of his past seven games, and he’s got a history with Wells. When the Yankees lit Wells for five runs in May, Torres was a big reason why — he sent two long balls into the Yankee Stadium bleachers off Wells.

Dan’s Picks

• Orioles ML
• Gunnar Henderson Over 0.5 Hits
• Gleyber Torres Over 0.5 Hits