New Orleans has a major success allergy: the Saints tend to follow up wins with failing to cover the next week. For the year, New Orleans has gone 1-5-1 ATS the week after a victory, and the Saints are just 3-10-1 ATS after a win under Dennis Allen.
On the other side of the coin, Atlanta’s been fading down the stretch, losing three of its past four. But the Falcons beat up the Saints on the ground in Week 12, and they’ve had the most success against bad run defenses.
Alabama isn’t supposed to be here. The Crimson Tide didn’t earn their way in; they got gifted their spot by Florida State losing Jordan Travis to injury. But they’re here now, and they’re dangerous as a result. That’s especially true for Michigan, as the Wolverines haven’t exactly faced much of a challenge this year.
The Longhorns might have the wrong matchup for this game in Washington’s pass attack. If the Longhorns can’t stop the pass, the Huskies likely have another upset win on their hands.
How will LSU handle life without Jayden Daniels? The Tigers built so much of their offense around the Heisman winner, and now they’ve got to play without him with Daniels opting out of the bowl game. That means Garrett Nussmeier becomes the quarterback, and his first start is against a middling Wisconsin squad.
The Brian Ferentz era ends with a game against a Tennessee team that was just kind of there this season. The Volunteers had one pratfall against a bad Florida team, but otherwise managed to beat the teams they should while losing to the teams stronger than they were.
After skating through 2023 without playing anyone of substance, Liberty gets its shot at the big boys in facing Oregon. This might be a little more than the Flames bargained for, however, as they played one of the weakest schedules in the nation. This might be reminiscent of when Georgia met Hawai’i in the Sugar Bowl 15 years ago.
In another time, this would be one of the most anticipated bowl games of the season. In another time, Florida State might even be playing for a share of the national championship with a win over Georgia.
But those days are over now, and what we have is one of the biggest messes we’ve seen in a bowl game.
Another bowl game, another instance where both teams will play without effective quarterbacks. Maryland at least has an excuse, given that Taulia Tagovailoa has opted out to focus on the NFL Draft. Auburn actually has its quarterback, but Payton Thorne isn’t exactly known for his throwing.
Both Penn State and Ole Miss want to legitimize their record as more than a product of a soft schedule. The pressure’s really on for Penn State to do so after Friday, given that Missouri wore down Ohio State in the Cotton Bowl. If the Nittany Lions also go down to an SEC opponent, it’s not going to be a comfortable offseason in Happy Valley.
