Auburn vs. Iowa State Expert Pick and Prediction – November 25, 2024

AUBURN VS. IOWA STATE EXPERT PICK AND PREDICTION – November 25, 2024 — This might not be what Iowa State was hoping for out of its trip to the islands. The Cyclones have not prepared well for this matchup, playing three weak opponents in their first three games. Granted, Connecticut has done the same thing, but the Huskies have shown that they know what they’re doing.

Iowa State, less so. The Cyclones had a good showing last year, making the Sweet 16 and losing a tight game to Illinois. But the year before, they were a No. 6 seed and barely showed up in a first-round loss to Pittsburgh. Iowa State simply hasn’t done enough to get the benefit of the doubt before facing a team like Auburn.

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Besides that, Auburn looks like a matchup nightmare for Iowa State. The Cyclones’ biggest weakness is their interior defense. And Auburn is really good in the paint at both ends of the floor, boasting the best interior defense in the nation and an outstanding offensive weapon in Johni Broome.

There’s more not to like for the Cardinal and Gold. Iowa State’s biggest strength has long been its ability to speed teams up and create turnovers. But that is exactly how Auburn likes to play. You can’t speed up this Tiger team; they thrive on that style. And that means this is a tough ask for the Cyclones.

The Odds

Tipoff

When: Monday, November 25 at 9 p.m.

Where: Lahaina Civic Center, Lahaina, Hawai’i.

TV: ESPNU

Public Bets: Unavailable

Public Money: Unavailable

Auburn vs. Iowa State In-Season Trends

The projected total is low because both teams have been stiff defensively to this point. Iowa State’s is a little skewed because the Cyclones’ best opponent is Kansas City, but they haven’t allowed anyone to break 56 points yet. Auburn does allow more points, but the Tigers also cracked the century mark against North Alabama. 

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While the Cyclones haven’t been tested yet, the Tigers came away with a huge win over Houston on a neutral floor. Notably, they scored 74 points in beating the Cougars. If you can do that against a Kelvin Sampson defense, there’s not anything that’s going to scare your offense.

The Difference-Makers

To beat Auburn, you have to find an answer for Johni Broome. Houston couldn’t do it, as he got 20 points and blocked five shots that night in a five-point win over the Cougars. Broome singlehandedly makes Auburn’s interior play among the best in the nation, and the Cyclones do not appear to have any way to deal with him.

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Taimin Lipsey’s five steals led the Cyclones in a win over IU-Indianapolis last time out. While the Jaguars are one of the worst teams in Division I, the five steals cannot be overlooked. Iowa State’s best hope is if the ball never gets to Broome because Lipsey and the backcourt have forced an Auburn mistake. But again, the Tigers like it when they play at a quicker tempo.

The Pick

Iowa State’s personnel doesn’t fit this matchup. You need to be able to gum Auburn up, not let them run. And when the Tigers do run, they have Broome waiting inside to finish things off. None of that is ideal for an Iowa State team that has size but hasn’t used it very well.

The Cyclones probably are a top squad this season. They certainly were a year ago. But this looks like the wrong matchup for them because what they do well plays right into Auburn’s hands. As such, the Tigers are the pick.