Atlanta Falcons vs. Detroit Lions Expert Pick – September 24, 2023

ATLANTA FALCONS vs. DETROIT LIONS EXPERT PICK – SEPTEMBER 24, 2023 – Welcome everyone for a rousing Sunday of football. I’m here to preview a matchup between two up-and-comers as the 2-0 Falcons take on the 1-1 Lions. This Falcons team is looking like a sneaky team to make the playoffs, coming out of of the NFC South. The two best rookie running backs in the league are also squaring off. Bijan is building momentum on the Falcons and Jahmyr Gibbs is getting his big break now that David Montgomery is joining the scores of other high-impact players around the league on the injured list.

Here is a look at which team has the edge going into this matchup and why.

Kickoff

When: Sunday, September 24, 2023 at 1:00 PM ET

Where: Ford Field, Detroit, MI.

TV: FOX

Related: NFL Week Three Fantasy Sleepers

The Odds

Odds courtesy of DraftKings

Atlanta Falcons vs. Detroit Lions – In-Season & Betting Trends

Falcons could be a sleeping giant

Look, the elephant in the room is Desmond Ridder, and the age old question of: Is he terrible? It’s sort of difficult to say. He looked fine at times late last season, so there were reasons to be optimistic, but he still doesn’t look good. Playing in an offense that has more resemblances to a service academy than a pro-style offense certainly helps to mask some flaws. Bijan Robinson is probably also going to help.

The defense couldn’t stop a nosebleed last season, but they’ve improved quite a bit.

This isn’t a team with Super Bowl aspirations (realistically), but they are certainly a sneaky team that has the ability to beat good teams having off days.

Lions have the injury bug

Hopes were high in the Motor City after a strong ending to last season that saw them knock the Packers out of the playoffs while simultaneously cashing a zillion of my futures bets on the Seahawks making the playoffs.

Injuries come for all teams in the NFL however. And they’ve come for Detroit now. David Montgomery is out of this game (and all of my fantasy lineups) with a thigh injury. Amon-Ra St. Brown has turf toe, but will play. There are multiple injuries to the offensive line and secondary as well.

This happens to pretty much every team at some point, it’s just the nature of the league. But when it is happening to a team, it’s tough to win.

The Picks

The Spread

This line opened at Falcons +5 and has slowly come down as the injury report piled up for the Lions. This is one of those weird games, betting-wise. The public seems to believe in the Lions because the public is often stupid. They have more wagers by volume, but there is more money on the Falcons because bettors who wager more tend to have more of a clue.

In these moments, I’ll trust my instincts. I’m pretty high on Atlanta, and it seems like the big money is in agreement with me.

Prediction: Falcons (+3)

Over/Under

This total is on the rise. It’s been going up all week.

I suspect that both teams should be able to score here. The two-headed monster of Bijan and Tyler Allgeier will get plenty of yards, especially if they can get to the second-level against these banged-up defensive backs.

I don’t have a strong opinion here, but I’d lean towards taking the over here.

Atlanta’s defense is improving, but we’re still talking about Jared Goff taking on what was the league’s worst secondary last season. Improvement matters, but this defense is still vulnerable.

Prediction: Over 47.5 points

Player Prop Bet

Jahmyr Gibbs is probably going to eat today. It’s been a crowded backfield with David Montgomery getting most of the meaningful work this season, but he’s out this weekend.

If there was ever a moment to unleash a weird gadget player and potential star, this is it. My thinking is that they’ll probably want to use him where he’s most dangerous and that in the receiving game.

I’m pretty heavy on his reception total props, so go ahead and hop on so we can all lose money on my lock of the week.

Prediction: Jahmy Gibbs OVER 3.5 receptions