ATLANTA DREAM VS. PHOENIX MERCURY EXPERT PICK AND PREDICTIONS — August 21, 2024

ATLANTA DREAM VS. PHOENIX MERCURY EXPERT PICK AND PREDICTIONS — August 21, 2024 — Greetings, basketball fans. Welcome back to our WNBA coverage here at Godzilla Wins. One of the games on tap from today’s slate features the Atlanta Dream (9-17 SU, 14-12 ATS) hosting the Phoenix Mercury (15-13 SU, 17-11 ATS).

Here is a look at which squad has the edge going into this matchup and why.

Tipoff

When: Wednesday, August 21, 2024 @ 7:30 PM ET

Where: Gateway Center Arena, College Park, GA

TV: AZ Family, Mercury Live, and Peachtree TV

Atlanta Dream vs. Phoenix Mercury Odds

Odds courtesy of DraftKings

Atlanta Dream vs. Phoenix Mercury – In-Season Stats & Betting Trends

Following a 7-9 start, the Dream endured a painful stretch, dropping eight consecutive contests heading into the midseason Olympic break. Since play resumed, however, Atlanta has posted wins in its last two contests, including an 83-81 win over the Seattle Storm on Aug 16 and an 82-70 victory against the Connecticut Sun on Aug 18. In the 12-point win over the Sun, Tina Charles set the tone for the Dream’s offense, scoring a team-high 22 points on 9-of-15 shooting from the floor. She also accounted for 15 of the team’s 34 rebounds.

Jordin Canada added 19 points, four rebounds, six assists, and six steals. The Dream trailed by five points (68-63) with 4:51 left to play in regulation. However, they outscored Connecticut 19-2 the rest of the way en route to their ninth win of the season.

On the other side of the spectrum, the Mercury posted a 9-10 record through their first 19 games. Since that start, they have gone 6-3 in their last nine outings. After falling to the Indiana Fever 98-89 on Aug 16, Phoenix responded with an 86-68 win over the Chicago Sky on Sunday. Diana Taurasi paced the team’s offense with a team-high 23 points and five assists on 6-of-13 shooting from the floor. Brittney Griner finished with 18 points and five rebounds.

Not known for being a great defensive team (ranked ninth in the WNBA), Phoenix held the Sky to 35.9 percent shooting from the field overall and 0-for-14 from beyond the arc. Can they duplicate that effort against Atlanta, or will the home team win its third straight game for the first time this season?

Now that we have set the stage for this matchup, let’s examine the betting trends for both teams.

The Spread

The Dream opened as a 2.5-point underdog, and at the time of this writing, the line has not moved (per OddShark.com). Here is a look at how both teams have fared against the spread this season.

• The Dream are 5-0 ATS in their last five outings.
• In its last eight games against teams with a winning record, Atlanta is 7-0-1 against the spread.
• Meanwhile, the Mercury are 6-3 ATS in their last nine contests.
• Phoenix is 2-6 ATS in its last eight matchups against the Dream.
• In their last five “road”  matchups against Atlanta, the Mercury are 1-4 against the spread.

Prediction: Atlanta Dream (-2.5)

Over/Under

The projected over/under total for this matchup opened at 165 points (per OddsShark.com). Here is why going with the “under” is the smart choice.

• The total has gone UNDER five times in the Dream’s last seven games overall.
• The UNDER total is 17-8 in Atlanta’s last 25 home contests.
• The total has gone UNDER 13 times in the Mercury’s last 19 games against the Dream.
• The UNDER total has prevailed eight times in Phoenix’s last nine “road” matchups against Atlanta.

Prediction: UNDER 165 points

Player Prop Bet

Rhyne Howard leads Atlanta in scoring, assists, and steals. Given that fact, she is the key player to watch for the home team. She currently has -125 odds of scoring more than 16.5 points and -105 odds of finishing with less than 16.5 points (via DraftKings).

Here is a look at how her numbers stack up against the projected points total for this matchup.

• During the season, Howard has been putting up 16.1 points per game.
• In the previous matchup against the Mercury this season, Howard scored 21 points on 7-of-15 shooting overall and 5-for-9 from three-point range.
• Howard has played against Western Conference teams nine times this season, averaging 18.6 points per outing in those contests.
• In nine home games, the Atlanta Dream guard averages 16.0 points per game.
• Over her last five outings, Howard has averaged 16.0 points, 5.2 rebounds, and 3.0 assists per contest, exceeding the points total for this matchup only once during that stretch.

Prediction: Rhyne Howard OVER 16.5 points