Arnold Palmer Invitational: Odds, Field, and Best Bets

ARNOLD PALMER INVITATIONAL: ODDS, FIELD, AND BEST BETS – The Florida Swing is in full effect as the Tour heads to Bay Hill for the Arnold Palmer Invitational (API).

This course is and has always been a brute. Measuring over 7,400 yards, it will test players off the tee and with long irons into the greens. It’s almost impossible to compete here without having an elite ballstriking week, particularly with the driver. Be sure to check out the stats for studs on Bermudagrass over at Nate Brown’s excellent site.

As a Signature Event, the field is loaded with 18 of the top 20 in the world set to tee it up. Naturally, this is going to provide a little bit of value on some elite talent that may be getting overlooked.

Here are my three top plays from each tier for the API.

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Favorites

Cameron Young (+2200)

It has to happen soon right? He’s still looking for his maiden victory on Tour, but it feels like he’s on the same elite level as the multiple winners on Tour.

He pretty much checks all the boxes. Strong off the tee? Yep. Great iron player? Sure is.

I don’t think anyone in the world would be surprised to see him get his first in a strong field like this. The cream tends to rise towards the top just because the skillset this course demands is really only possessed by elite players. Bay Hill will find your flaws, so I’m looking for guys who are well-rounded.

He had a quiet 4th last week at PGA National and he had some solid results prior with a top-20 at Riviera and top-10 in Scottsdale.

At this point, I’ve bet on Young so much that I’m not even sure a win here will get me back to even on him lifetime. But here’s to hoping. Oh, and he’s played well here in the past with a T10 and T13. The win is coming soon and this could be his week.

Midtier

Matt Fitzpatrick (+3000)

This feels sort of like cheating and it’s a little stingier than I’d usually take in the midtier of the oddsboard. There’s a lot to like about Fitz this week though, so he goes on the card and into the article.

He’s teed it up in this event nine times and has finished in the top-25 six of those tries with four of them in the top-10. He still has something of a reputation as a guy who just bunts and plods his way around the course, but that isn’t really the case with all of the speed work he’s done to increase his distance.

Fitz tends to do his best work at historic courses, strong fields, and tough tests. This week will have all three. The routine events don’t always seem to get his attention, but I have a feeling he could pop in this event given how well he’s played here in the past.

Longshot 

David Ford (a) (+80000)

Why the hell not? He’s the longest shot on the board, and an amateur. He got voted in by his teammates from the Arnold Palmer Cup, and the UNC Tarheel will look to become the second amateur to take down an event this season.

I don’t have a lot of stats to fill in this area, but there’s a really great writeup of him here.

The golf world doesn’t make sense anymore as the field strength continues to be diluted as a result of LIV poaching top players. I know this is a Signature Event with a strong field, but things just don’t feel the same anymore. These odds just seem ridiculous for an elite college golfer in a 69-man field. At half the size of a typical Tour event — and no cut — I think there is a path for another miracle to happen.

This season has seen bombs dropping with all sorts of longshot winners. This could be the biggest one yet. If you wager the cost of one Miller Lite on this, you’ll pay for 800 future Miller Lites. Think about that.