Arizona vs. Duke Expert Pick and Prediction – November 10, 2023

ARIZONA VS. DUKE EXPERT PICK AND PREDICTION – NOVEMBER 10, 2023 — The opening week of the college basketball season serves up a brilliant game between two basketball blue bloods. Duke and Arizona haven’t met on a college campus since 1991, when both programs were still in the infancy of their status as true basketball royalty.

Both have come a long way since then, and both have their eyes on a Final Four appearance after flaming out in last year’s tournament. For Arizona, there’s a real sense of pressure to make up for last season, as the Wildcats fell to Princeton’s slow-down style and became the latest 2 seed to lose to a No. 15. Under Tommy Lloyd, Arizona has restored its regular season dominance, but the Wildcats have gone just 2-2 in the tournament in his two seasons in Tucson.

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Things aren’t much more sanguine at Duke, where Jon Scheyer had a good but not great first season. The Blue Devils finished last year with nine straight regular season wins, but then got creamed by Tennessee to exit in the second round. After inheriting the program from Mike Krzyzewski, Scheyer’s got to do more in year two.

The Blue Devils haven’t lost a home game since Krzyzewski’s final game in Durham, which makes this a pressure spot for Scheyer and an opportunity for Lloyd and Arizona.

The Odds

Kickoff

When: Friday, November 10th at 7 pm EST

Where: Cameron Indoor Stadium, Durham, N.C.

TV: ESPN2

Public Bets: 67% on Arizona

Public Money: 72% on Arizona

Odds courtesy of DraftKings, as of November 9th, 2023.

Arizona vs. Duke In-Season Trends

This game’s going to be decided by tempo. Arizona liked to push the ball a lot last season, and the Wildcats did it very well. A year ago, Arizona went 23-2 when it got to 75 points or more and just 5-5 when it didn’t. Duke is more methodical, and the Blue Devils will likely try to slow the Wildcats down to their pace. Arizona scored 122 points in the opener, and that’s probably not where Duke wants this game to be.

The Blue Devils won their opener by shooting 64.4% from the floor against Dartmouth. That likely will not repeat, but Duke has shown a tendency to bury its opponents with good shooting. Going back to last year, four of the Blue Devils’ past five wins have come by double digits.

The Difference-Makers

The pressure is on Caleb Love here as he returns to the Triangle. Love wore the other shade of blue last time he was here as a member of North Carolina, and now he’s helping to run Arizona’s offense. He didn’t shoot well against Morgan State, but he didn’t have to with the Wildcats grabbing 49 boards. Against the bigger Blue Devils, he’ll have to be more accurate with his shots.

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Kyle Filipowski wasn’t seriously challenged in the paint by Dartmouth, but he’ll have a much stiffer challenge from Arizona. The Blue Devils shot 73.8 percent from inside the arc and could pretty much count on a basket on most trips down the floor. Filipowski will be looking to test himself here against a good rebounding team, and Duke will likely look for him early.

The Pick

Duke has dominated at Cameron since the fans returned, and the Blue Devils aren’t likely to change that here. They have plenty of height inside and can play at a pace that frustrates Arizona. The Wildcats really don’t like when they get slowed down, and the Blue Devils can use that to their advantage.

The number’s likely getting a bit too high here for how the Blue Devils will try to play. If it stays under, Duke has the edge.