Arizona Cardinals vs. Chicago Bears Expert Pick – December 24, 2023

ARIZONA CARDINALS VS. CHICAGO BEARS EXPERT PICK – DECEMBER 24,  2023 – Greetings, football fans. Welcome back to our NFL coverage here at Godzilla Wins.

One of my games of the week features the Arizona Cardinals (3-11) going on the road to take on the Chicago Bears (5-9). With just eight wins between these teams, there is little else to play for except for pride.

With that sentiment in mind, here is a look at which team has the edge heading into this matchup and why.

Kickoff

When: Sunday, December 24, 2023 at 4:25 PM ET

Where: Soldier Field, Chicago

TV: FOX

Arizona Cardinals vs. Chicago Bears Odds

Odds courtesy of DraftKings

Arizona Cardinals vs. Chicago Bears – Regular Season Stats & Betting Trends

Can The Cardinals Get Their Second Road Win Of The Season Against An Improved Bears Defense?

The Arizona Cardinals enter this matchup having dropped three of their past four decisions. This includes a 45-29 loss to the San Francisco 49ers in Week 14. Kyler Murray – who has appeared in just five games this season – finished 26-of 39 for 211 yards, with one touchdown and two interceptions. James Connor led Arizona’s ground game with 86 yards on 14 carries and one touchdown. Trey McBride had a solid outing with 10 catches totaling 102 yards.

From a statistical standpoint, the Cardinals held their own. They outgained San Francisco 436 to 406 in total yards. Arizona also amassed 234 rushing yards while their counterparts finished with 144 yards. Despite the numbers, it was not enough to keep up with a Niners squad that looks like the team to beat in the NFC.

It will be interesting to see how Arizona’s offense will fare against a Bears defense that has produced 14 turnovers in their last four games.

Bears Offensive Stats                                            Bears Defensive Stats
Scoring: 20.5 PPG – 22nd                                          Scoring: 23.5 PPG – 22nd
Total Yards: 336.9 YPG – 22nd                                 Yards Allowed: 319 YPG — 14th
Passing: 202.5 YPG – 26th                                         Passing Yards Allowed: 239.2 YPG — 26th
Rushing: 134.4 YPG – 5th                                           Rushing Yards Allowed: 79.8 YPG – 1st

Bears Hoping To Bounce Back From Another Late-Game Meltdown

The Bears come into this matchup having won three of their past five decisions. Unfortunately, an all-too-familiar trend reared its ugly head in the team’s Week 14 matchup against the Cleveland Browns.

The Bears had a 17-7 lead in the fourth quarter. Not only that, but the defense had forced backup quarterback, Joe Flacco, into three interceptions. Usually, the team with a double-digit lead will come away with the victory in those scenarios. But that was not the case for the Bad News Bears for the third time this season.

Through the first three quarters, Flacco was 17-of-31 for 162 yards. In the final frame, though, it was a different story altogether. Flacco completed 11 of his final 13 passing attempts for 212 yards, giving the Browns a 20-17 lead with 32 seconds left in the game.

On the ensuing possession, Chicago had one last chance. Justin Fields heaved the football into the end zone. Two Browns players batted the ball down and it landed right in Darnell Mooney’s lap. Ironically, Mooney was unable to secure the football and it was eventually intercepted by D’Anthony Ball, handing the Bears yet another disappointing loss this season.

Can The Bears Re-establish Their Ground Game Against The Cardinals’ 31st-Ranked Run Defense?

As expected, the Bears had a tough time generating any kind of offense against the league’s top defense. Justin Fields finished 19-of-40 for 166 yards with one touchdown and two interceptions. Roschon Johnson led Chicago’s ground game (or lack thereof) with 36 yards on five carries. Chicago, who has the fourth-best rushing offense in the NFL, managed just 88 yards on 27 attempts.

DJ Moore had four receptions for 52 yards. Cole Kmet had five catches totaling 23 yards and a touchdown. The positive from this matchup is that the Bears turned three turnovers into 14 points. On the other side of the narrative, it was not enough for an offense that has had difficulty finding its footing for most of the season.

Facing an opponent that is ranked 25th in total yards allowed per game and 31st against the run could be just what the doctor ordered for Chicago.

Can The Bears String Together A Few Wins To Close Out The 2023 Season?

In terms of Chicago’s remaining schedule, Cleveland was the only team on the slate with a winning record. Following the Week 15 matchup against Arizona, the Bears will host the Atlanta Falcons next week and will close out the season with a road game against the Green Bay Packers.

In other words, it is feasible that the Bears could string together a couple of wins heading into the offseason. Then again, nothing has been a sure thing with this team in 2023.

Next up, a look at some noteworthy betting trends for both teams.

The Picks

The Spread

The Bears opened as a consensus 3.5-point favorite in this matchup. At the time of this writing, the line has climbed up slightly to four points for Chicago. Here are a few trends that offer optimism in taking the home team to cover the spread this week.

• The Cardinals are 1-5 ATS in their last five matchups against NFC-North opponents.
• Arizona is 2-6 ATS in its last eight December games.
• The Bears are 4-2 ATS in their last six games overall.
• In its last nine Week 16 contests, Chicago is 6-3 against the spread.

Last week,  I accurately predicted that the Bears would cover the spread against a tough Browns defense. That trend should continue against a 3-11 team.

Prediction: Chicago Bears (-4)

Over/Under

The projected over/under total opened at 43.5 points. The line has moved to 43 points, with the over garnering 74 percent of the cash and 76 percent of the tickets. Here are a few reasons why taking the “under” is the way to go in this matchup.

• The UNDER total has hit in each of the Cardinals’ last five road games.
• In the Bears’ last seven games, the UNDER total cashed in six times.
• The UNDER total won out five times in Chicago’s last six matchups against NFC-West opponents.
• In Chicago’s 14 games this season, the final score exceeded the projected points total for this matchup only five times.

Prediction: UNDER 43 points

Player Prop Bets

The key player to watch for Chicago is Justin Fields. He currently has -115 odds of finishing with more than 201.5 yards and -115 odds of finishing with less than 201.5 yards. Although Fields has exceeded the projected passing yards total for this matchup six times across his 10 outings this season, here is why you should consider going with the “under”.

• On the season, Fields has thrown for 1,976 yards, which averages out to 197.6 YPG.
• In eight Sunday, games, Fields is averaging 184.6  passing yards per contest.
• In the seven instances in which he played against non-divisional opponents; Fields is averaging 196.6  yards per outing.
• Fields has played in four home games this season. In those contests, he is averaging 208 YPG.
• Since returning from a thumb injury, Fields has averaged 193.8  passing yards in his last four games.

Prediction: Justin Fields UNDER 201.5 passing yards

My key player to watch for the Cardinals is Kyler Murray. He currently has -115 odds of throwing for more than 208.5 yards and -115 odds of finishing with less than 208.5 yards. Here is a closer look at how his season splits compare with the projected passing yards total for this matchup.

• During his career, Murray has played against Chicago just once. That matchup took place two years ago (12/5/2021). In that contest, he completed 11 of 15 passes for 123 yards, with two touchdowns and no interceptions.
• Murray has thrown for 1,075 yards in five contests. This averages out to 215 yards per contest.
• Two of Murray’s five games have taken place on the road. In those contests, he is averaging 179.5  YPG.
• Murray is averaging 238.7  YPG in three matchups against NFC opponents.
• In two outdoor games, Murray has thrown for 356 yards, which averages out to 178 yards per outing.
• Out of the five games he’s played this season, Murray has exceeded the projected passing yards total for this contest four times.

Prediction: Kyler Murray OVER 208.5 yards