Analyzing the College Football Playoff Field
ANALYZING THE COLLEGE FOOTBALL PLAYOFF FIELD – We’ve now reached championship week in college football, and that means it’s time to take a look at who’s going to make it to the College Football Playoff. Some teams are definitely in the field, some are in as long as nothing weird happens, some need some help and some are win-and-in this week.
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There will definitely be a few surprises this year, as the SEC cannibalized itself this season and the conference championship games could yet produce a few shocks. Here’s a look at each tier and what they need to have happen.
Tier 1: Definitely In
Teams: Oregon, Ohio State, Texas, Penn State, Notre Dame, Tennessee
Even with the loss to Michigan, Ohio State is in. The Buckeyes have enough on the profile to absorb a bad loss — and make no mistake, falling to 7-5 Michigan in Columbus qualifies as a bad loss — and still get in. But a home game is now no sure thing for the Buckeyes.
Notre Dame will definitely be playing at home and probably be the No. 5 overall seed. Remember, as an independent, No. 5 is as high as the Irish can climb. They have improved plenty, and they’re safely in the clubhouse. The only way the Irish realistically drop would be a Penn State win over Oregon, which would likely see the Ducks drop to No. 5 and the Irish slide to No. 6.
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Tennessee appears on this list and not Georgia by virtue of not making the SEC title game. The Vols will only carry two defeats, and both were fairly reasonable. They should have no issue sealing an at-large bid. Georgia is probably in, but will still have to sweat a little if it loses to Texas.
Oregon and Penn State are playing for the No. 1 or No. 2 overall seed. The Ducks will obviously be No. 1 if they win; the Nittany Lions will be No. 1 with a win and a Texas loss and No. 2 with a win and a Texas win. But the loser is not falling out of this thing. Oregon, at one loss, would likely be No. 5 overall. Penn State isn’t missing with only losses to Ohio State and Oregon.
Tier 2: Win and You’re In
Teams: Georgia, SMU, Clemson, Arizona State, Iowa State, Boise State, UNLV
In this group, only Georgia and maybe SMU can say that they have a shot if they lose. The other five know a loss means they’re finished for the playoff. Arizona State and Iowa State, however, have major rooting interest in Boise State’s battle with UNLV. If the Runnin’ Rebels can find a way to win in Boise, they’d become the lowest-ranked champion and the winner of Arizona State-Iowa State vaults into the first-round bye. If the Broncos win, either the Sun Devils or the Cyclones are on their way to either South Bend, Eugene or Happy Valley.
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Clemson gets a mulligan after losing to South Carolina, which really doesn’t seem fair to the Gamecocks. Not that they wouldn’t have anyway, but South Carolina will be pulling hard for SMU to beat Clemson. If the Tigers win and steal a bid, the Gamecocks are probably cooked. A Mustang win gives South Carolina some real hope.
Georgia is probably in, but a third loss would be tough to stomach. It helps that the Dawgs beat Tennessee, but a loss probably means Georgia starts on the road.
Tier 3: Nervously On the Fence
Teams: Indiana, Miami, South Carolina, Alabama, Mississippi
With no conference title game on the schedule and their resumes right on the cut line, these are the teams hoping for selection committee intervention on their behalf. Indiana is here only because of the potential for chaos. The Hoosiers did themselves a big favor by taking Purdue to the woodshed, as 66 points says something even though Purdue is terrible. Indiana is probably in, but the Hoosiers could use some help from SMU. If the Mustangs win, the Hoosiers are in for sure.
Miami’s fate will be decided by how much the committee punishes the Hurricanes for a loss to Syracuse. Yes, the Hurricanes were ranked sixth nationally, but there is little meat on this bone. Miami’s best win of the season was probably either Louisville or Duke. And no disrespect to the 9-3 Blue Devils, but when Duke is one of your best wins and we’re not talking basketball or baseball, something probably went wrong.
If the committee punishes Miami, South Carolina is there to snap it up and Alabama and Mississippi there as potential dark horses. The reality is that the Gamecocks have been hot and nobody wants to see them in their bracket in round 1. Alabama does have a head-to-head over the Gamecocks, but right now, South Carolina is perhaps the hottest team in the nation. It will be interesting to see what happens.
Tier 4: Out of the Picture
Teams: Colorado, Texas A&M
Colorado did what it could, other than a couple early losses. The Buffaloes slammed Oklahoma State to charge into the discussion. But the ranking isn’t there, and there’s no way for them to shoot into the conversation now. Texas A&M had its chance if it could have won consecutive games, but that dream died when the Aggies couldn’t move the ball on Texas. They’re officially out of the running.
