Alabama vs. Mississippi State Expert Pick and Prediction – January 29, 2025

ALABAMA VS. MISSISSIPPI STATE EXPERT PICK AND PREDICTION – January 29, 2025 — It’s time to ask some serious questions about Mississippi State. If the Bulldogs can’t get a win here, it’s time to wonder whether they’re really one of the top teams in the SEC.

Two wins over South Carolina isn’t going to impress anyone this season. If Mississippi State is going to hold a top-four seed, it’s got to get some wins over talented teams. And while the Bulldogs need to do it away from Starkville eventually, this is one of their best opportunities.

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Unfortunately, the way the Bulldogs play is not really conducive to beating Alabama. The way the Crimson Tide play is no secret: they run, run and run some more. They get a lot of shots, and they’re good shooters in the mid-range. If they’re hitting, they’re almost impossible to beat unless you’re shooting lights-out from deep.

Problem: Mississippi State is not a good deep-shooting team. The Bulldogs are at their best when they clean up on the offensive glass and cash in on second chances. But that’s something Alabama does too, and the Crimson Tide honestly do it better.

The Odds

Tipoff

When: Wednesday, January 29 at 9 p.m.

Where: Humphrey Coliseum, Starkville, Miss.

TV: SEC Network

Public Bets: Unavailable

Public Money: Unavailable

Alabama vs. Mississippi State In-Season Trends

This has mostly been one-way traffic since Nate Oats arrived in Tuscaloosa. The former Buffalo coach swiftly rebuilt Alabama into one of the best in the nation, and he has ripped Mississippi State to shreds since arriving. Over the past six seasons, the Tide are 10-2 against the Bulldogs, and they’ve won the past six in the series. Worse for Mississippi State, Alabama has won three of four trips to Starkville.

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Chris Jans hasn’t yet gotten Mississippi State up to that level, and the Bulldogs are starting to suggest they’re not as good as expected. Mississippi State has now failed to cover in five straight and six of seven, and its only impressive win as of late was Mississippi at home in overtime.

The Difference-Makers

Alabama is so full of scorers that it can win without Mark Sears. It proved that last time out, as Sears played in the first half without scoring and rode the bench for the entire second half against LSU. It didn’t cost Alabama anything, as the Tide won by seven. Sears had averaged 25.5 points in his previous two games, and a return to form can only help the Tide.

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Josh Hubbard’s low field goal percentage underscores how dependent Mississippi State is on second chances. Despite leading the Bulldogs in scoring, Hubbard only shoots 38% from the floor. That means Keshawn Murphy has to be big on the glass to win this game. The eleven rebounds he got against Mississippi would be huge; the two he got against South Carolina won’t cut it.

The Pick

Mississippi State is living on reputation right now. The Bulldogs should not be favored in this game, as they are not playing anywhere near up to par. Alabama should be back on track for this game, as Oats’ benching of Sears presumably got his best player’s attention.

That’s really not what Mississippi State needed here. The Bulldogs will be desperate, but Alabama’s better. The Tide should win outright.