Alabama vs. Michigan Expert Pick and Prediction – December 31, 2024

ALABAMA VS. MICHIGAN EXPERT PICK AND PREDICTION – December 31, 2024 — It’s been just under a year since Alabama and Michigan squared off in last year’s College Football Playoff, and neither side is where they wanted to be this time around.

Truth be told, Michigan probably expected this. The Wolverines were decimated by graduation and the loss of Jim Harbaugh to the NFL, and they made an unproven hire in Sherrone Moore. The fact that Moore got a winning season out of this group and didn’t lose to Ohio State likely has people fairly happy in Ann Arbor.

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The situation is far less rosy in Tuscaloosa. Kalen DeBoer also made the playoff last year with Washington, then departed when Nick Saban retired. But DeBoer’s first year has underscored just how much of a master Saban was. Quite frankly, Alabama did not deserve to go to the playoff last year, and the fact that it was even in position was a testament to Saban’s coaching. This Crimson Tide roster wasn’t good enough to make a run through the SEC meat grinder, and the results showed.

Losing to Oklahoma normally wouldn’t have been a cause for alarm. Losing to this year’s Oklahoma team certainly was. The Sooners went 2-6 in the SEC and the other win was Auburn. Alabama also lost to Vanderbilt, which was the beginning of the end for the Tide.

And that brings up a big question for DeBoer: can he motivate the Tide in this game? As good as Saban was, he rarely could coax a strong performance when Alabama wasn’t involved in the championship picture. The Tide sometimes looked disinterested in second-tier bowls, taking losses to Utah and Oklahoma. If that repeats, the cries against DeBoer might get louder.

The Odds

Kickoff

When: Tuesday, December 31 at Noon

Where: Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, Fla.

TV: ESPN

Public Bets: Unavailable

Public Money: Unavailable

Alabama vs. Michigan In-Season Trends

Is Alabama starting to understand each other? The Crimson Tide is 4-1 ATS in their past five games, with the only loss being the 24-3 nightmare against Oklahoma. The under has also been fairly consistent for Alabama, cashing in five of its past six contests.

Related: Why Ohio State Should Fire Ryan Day

Michigan also seems to be hitting on all cylinders as of late, going 4-1 ATS in its past five games. The exception was the most understandable in the country: a three-touchdown loss to Oregon. The Wolverines have been a double-digit underdog twice and covered both, including winning the game outright against Ohio State in Columbus.

Weather

This isn’t what you hope for when you come to Florida in December. It’s going to be warm, at least, but 79 and humid isn’t anyone’s idea of pleasant.

The Difference-Makers

Kalel Mullings came up big for Michigan against Ohio State…but he opted out of the bowl game, as did Donovan Edwards. So the job now falls to Benjamin Hall, who had 13 carries all season. Needless to say, this isn’t where Michigan wanted to be on offense.

Related: Mack Brown’s Firing

Ryan Williams still isn’t old enough to buy a lottery ticket (not that he could anyway; Alabama is one of five states that doesn’t have a lottery), but he remains one of the most explosive players on the field. Michigan’s secondary has to know where he is at all times.

The Pick

As hard as it is to pick a less-than-motivated Alabama, the Crimson Tide have far more pieces in place. Nothing suggests Michigan will be able to move the ball in this game, as the Wolverines’ best rushers are both gone.

Related: Defense of James Franklin

Michigan won its Super Bowl last time out anyway. The Tide should coast through this one.