TCU vs. Stanford Expert Pick and Prediction – August 30, 2024

TCU VS. STANFORD EXPERT PICK AND PREDICTION – August 30, 2024 — Was 2022 the outlier, or the foundation? That’s the question in Fort Worth after the Horned Frogs went right back to 5-7 a year after going 13-2 and reaching the national championship game. TCU’s honeymoon period didn’t even last one game, as the Frogs got picked off by Colorado in Week 1 and never really recovered.

Since then, TCU has gained some needed experience and should be stronger on the defensive side of the ball. In fact, the Frogs gave up fewer points in 2023 than they did in 2022, suggesting that defense was not the problem after Week 1.

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Stanford also has more experience, but the Cardinal have a long way to go. Winning a home game would be a good start, as Stanford hasn’t won in any of its past nine games on the Farm. The Cardinal are also coming off three consecutive 3-9 seasons, a sign of how far this program has fallen from the days of Andrew Luck.

This Stanford team brings back 18 starters, so there’s reason for optimism. Whether that’s enough to get off to a good start against TCU remains to be seen.

The Odds

Kickoff

When: Friday, August 30 at 10:30 p.m. EST

Where: Stanford Stadium, Palo Alto, Calif.

TV: ESPN

Public Bets: Unavailable

Public Money: Unavailable

Odds courtesy of DraftKings, as of August 27th, 2024.

TCU vs. Stanford In-Season Trends

In 2021, Oregon rolled into Stanford at No. 3 in the nation and left with an overtime loss to the Cardinal. Since then, it’s been a dark, bleak time for Stanford fans. The Cardinal are 2-15 SU and 4-13 ATS on their home field since that night, which includes a loss to FCS Sacramento State last season.

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The Frogs might have botched their opener with Colorado last year, but that’s actually nothing new for them. TCU is just 2-5 ATS in its past seven home non-conference games. But they tend to get the job done away from home. Since 2014, the Frogs have played eight true road non-conference games and won all of them, going 7-1 ATS in the process.  

Weather

This will work out nicely weather-wise. Temperatures will sit in the low 70s to high 60s around kickoff, with mild wind and no precipitation.

The Difference-Makers

If Josh Hoover can cut down on his interceptions, the Frogs have something at quarterback. Hoover showed that he could move the Frogs last season, but turnovers proved a big problem. Again, TCU actually gained more yards per game than the 2022 season, but the Frogs’ turnovers proved the difference. In 2022, TCU was plus-6 in turnovers; in 2023, the Frogs were minus-7.

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Ashton Daniels also needs to cut down on turnovers after throwing 11 touchdowns against eight interceptions. He does have his entire offensive line back from last year, so his decision-making should be improved.

The Pick

Eventually, Stanford is going to solve this thing at home. The Cardinal aren’t going to keep losing home games forever, and they do have a fair amount of talent back from last year. But there isn’t yet an indication that Stanford is moving in the right direction. The Cardinal’s three wins weren’t anything special; they beat no bowl teams and would have been 2-10 if not for Colorado inexplicably blowing a 29-point lead.

TCU does have a history of playing at higher levels than what it showed last year. It is the more trustworthy team in Week 1, which makes it the better play.