Eastern Illinois vs. Illinois Expert Pick and Prediction – August 29, 2024

EASTERN ILLINOIS VS. ILLINOIS EXPERT PICK AND PREDICTION – August 29, 2024 — If Bret Bielema’s going to build up some momentum in Champaign, the Fighting Illini need a good start here. Illinois has just been kind of there for Bielema’s three years, going 5-7 last year and missing a bowl for the second time in three seasons.

The Illini have a tricky Week 2 matchup coming up with Kansas, so there’s even more pressure on them to get off to a good start here. Eastern Illinois should cooperate, despite the short trip up I-57. The Panthers were a pretty good FCS team in 2023, winning eight games and just missing out on a playoff spot. But they couldn’t handle Bowling Green in their one FBS game, and they tend not to put up a great showing against FBS opponents.

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The last time they met a Power 4 team, the Panthers failed to score, losing 46-0 to South Carolina. That Eastern squad was a lot weaker than this one, so a shutout isn’t likely here. Whether the Panthers can cover depends on whether the Illini has the defense figured out. Illinois played great defense in 2022, but the defense allowed 29.4 points per game in 2023. If Illinois is going to move up in the Big Ten Plus Eight, it has to get better on that side of the ball.

The Odds

Kickoff

When: Thursday, August 29 at 9 p.m. EST

Where: Memorial Stadium, Champaign, Ill.

TV: Big Ten Network

Public Bets: Unavailable

Public Money: Unavailable

Odds courtesy of DraftKings, as of August 26th, 2024.

Eastern Illinois vs. Illinois In-Season Trends

Illinois hasn’t had much trouble with FCS opponents before. The Illini have never lost to one, and they’re 7-2 ATS in their past nine against the lower division. They were also a 28-point favorite against Eastern Illinois the last time they played, in 2008, and the Illini failed to cover in that one, winning by 26.

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Eastern Illinois was the king of the close game last season, as six of its 12 contests were decided by one score or less. However, that did not include the Panthers’ one FBS game, which they lost by 23 points.

Weather

The heat wave that’s gripping the Midwest will likely be done by Thursday, but it’s going to leave behind a couple strong storm systems. Temperatures are likely to hit 90 degrees, with the probability of thunderstorms.

The Difference-Makers

If Eastern Illinois is going to keep this close, it’s going to need a big performance from running back MJ Flowers. Flowers was a finalist last year for the Jerry Rice Award as the top freshman in FCS, and Illinois had a rather suspect defense a year ago. If Flowers can keep the chains moving, the Panthers have a chance to stay in the game.

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Patrick Bryant led Illinois with seven receiving touchdowns last year, and he’s the top returner among the Illini’s skill positions. With Luke Altmyer also returning, Bryant is in line for a big game to get the year going.

The Pick

I suggested throwing North Carolina into a six-point teaser, and this might be another one to pair it with. Illinois isn’t losing to Eastern Illinois. But the spread is high enough and the Panthers have a strong enough ground game that four touchdowns seems a little much. These teams have met twice before, and both times, Eastern ended up covering, losing by 25 in 2006 and 26 in 2008.

This feels like a 31-7 kind of game: comfortable enough for Illinois to feel good about its day, not enough for the Illini to cover and coming in under the number.