Best Futures Bets In the Mountain West

BEST FUTURES BETS IN THE MOUNTAIN WEST — Nobody knows what the future of the Mountain West is going to look like. Will it see a reverse merger, where the Pac-12 absorbs it and it becomes a de facto fifth conference? Could some teams join a Power 4 league? Will the league stay at 12 and leave Oregon State and Washington State entirely? Anything is possible.

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What’s most likely is that Boise State will flirt with the College Football Playoff’s Group of 5 bid and New Mexico will flirt with a winless season. Anything between that is up for grabs. Here’s a look at the best futures bets in the Mountain West.

Boise State to Win the Conference, -110

There’s almost no value in this pick. Boise State isn’t quite Liberty in Conference USA, but it’s not that far off. The Broncos are clearly the class of the league, as long as the spurt at the end of last year was legitimate. If Boise State plays the way it did in November, it’s going to host the Mountain West title game.

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It helps that the Broncos won’t play Fresno State and really don’t have much that can hurt them on the road. Even the two riders from the Pac-12 both found their way to visiting Boise State this season (although Washington State and Oregon State don’t count in the standings). Everything is set up for the Broncos to play Fresno State or UNLV for the conference title as long as they don’t botch this. Boise should be talented enough to avoid a stumble.

UNLV to Play for the Title, +160

This was going to be Fresno State until two weeks ago, when Jeff Tedford announced he was stepping away for health reasons. Tim Skipper might get things solved in the Valley, but he’s a totally unproven entity at this point.

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Barry Odom is not. He’s a defensive guy who should improve what was the Rebels’ weakest spot a year ago as he continues to get his guys in place. It also doesn’t hurt that the toughest games on UNLV’s schedule will both come in Las Vegas, as Boise State and Fresno State both visit the spaceship. UNLV might have to go to Boise or Fresno to win a league title, but that doesn’t matter for this bet. They just need to get there, and they can.

Hawai’i Over 5 Wins (-130)

Let me tell you a story about the 2023 Hawai’i football team. If you’ve been a regular reader of Godzilla Wins, you know that I spent much of 2023 on the Hawaiian islands and saw every Rainbow Warrior home football game. And for five home football games and five road games, this team was just plain bad. The last of these was Hawai’i’s homecoming, and it ended with the Rainbow Warriors getting shut out by San Jose State. Clearly, Hawai’i was in total free fall.

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But then a funny thing happened. With Air Force in town, Hawai’i coach Timmy Chang decided to do something crazy: he actually ran the football. He discovered that running the football is actually beneficial sometimes. And the Rainbow Warriors stunned the Falcons in one of the biggest upsets of the season. Hawai’i then beat Colorado State to somehow get to five wins on the year.

This year should be better. The Rainbow Warriors return most of their roster from last year and Chang now understands that running the football has its place. Hawai’i is still pass-happy, but it will run if it has an opportunity. And the schedule cooperates, as Hawai’i faces two FCS teams in Delaware State and Northern Iowa. That carries another benefit for bettors: Hawai’i needs seven wins, not six, to reach a bowl (unless it loses one of the two FCS games). Nevada and New Mexico both come to the islands, and Sam Houston and San Diego State are winnable road games. Six wins is very doable.

New Mexico Under 2 Wins (-110)

I feel for New Mexico SID Frank Mercogliano. Few people have seen as much bad football as he has, going from Idaho State to New Mexico. The Lobos haven’t been good in years, winning three games or fewer in six of the past seven seasons. Former BYU and Virginia coach Bronco Mendenhall tries to pick up the pieces from this train wreck, but this looks like a long-term fix.

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Here’s the first sign of trouble: New Mexico is getting 7.5 points in Week 0 against Montana State. Montana State is an FCS power, but it’s still an FCS school that’s giving a touchdown on the road. When that’s the case, you know you’re talking about a bad program. Arizona and Auburn were already on the schedule; adding Washington State didn’t help. With the rivalry with New Mexico State being in Las Cruces instead of Albuquerque, it’s really difficult to find two wins on this schedule. New Mexico has a genuine chance to go 0-12 this year.