Best Futures Bets In the Sun Belt

BEST FUTURES BETS IN THE SUN BELT — When the conference realignment carousel again began to spin out of control, the Sun Belt saw opportunity. It didn’t panic and grab teams that weren’t good cultural fits. It didn’t choose geographic outliers just to make the league more attractive to ESPN. The Sun Belt went all-in on mid-sized schools that could play good football in the Southeast. And it’s become one of the strongest conferences in the Group of 5.

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With the decline of Boise State and the American continuously getting raided, there’s an argument for the Sun Belt as the strongest G5 conference. It’s certainly the most balanced, as there’s no truly dominant teams and only one doormat in Louisiana-Monroe. That makes this a wide-open race with plenty of value. Here’s a look at the best bets from the Sun Belt.

Appalachian State to Win the Conference, +275

There is a concern with App State, and it’s whether a brutal nonconference schedule buries the Mountaineers’ confidence. App State will face Clemson, East Carolina and Liberty outside the Sun Belt, which makes for a tough assignment. But in the conference, the Mountaineers have the most talented roster. They also get James Madison and South Alabama at home, which should set them up well.

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In Joey Aguilar, the Mountaineers have the best quarterback in the conference. But offense has never been the problem in Boone. App State has always put up points like nobody’s business. The problem has been whether they can stop anyone. The Mountaineers didn’t do it last year, but they return a fair amount of talent on defense from last season. If they can keep opponents from putting too many points on the board, they’re the favorites in the East and the conference.

Texas State to Win the West, +220

This is a tough bet to make, because Texas State, Louisiana, South Alabama and Troy all have a strong case to win the West. But Texas State seems to have the best value. With Troy losing its best receiver to cancer and Louisiana drawing App State and Coastal Carolina out of the East, the schedule vastly favors Texas State.

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Having to go to both Troy and South Alabama is far from ideal. But the Bobcats get Troy before the Trojans have had time to adjust to life after Chris Lewis, which should make life easier on the Texas State defense. The Bobcats will get in a lot of shootouts, and they have the talent to win them.

James Madison Over 8 Wins (-130)

Good news in Harrisonburg: James Madison is now eligible to play for the Sun Belt championship. Bad news in Harrisonburg: The Dukes have to travel to Appalachian State this year. Worse news in Harrisonburg: Coach Curt Cignetti left for Indiana and the Dukes have to rebuild this roster.

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But Madison still has plenty of talent and made a solid hire in Holy Cross coach Bob Chesney. Chesney’s Crusaders nearly beat Boston College last season, so he shouldn’t be overwhelmed by this job. It helps that the Sun Belt seems to have offered an olive branch to Madison as an apology for last season: Southern Miss and Louisiana-Monroe are projected to be the two worst teams in the Sun Belt West, and the Dukes drew both of them as crossover games.

There’s not a lot of margin for error. Madison probably isn’t winning at North Carolina, and it can’t afford to stub its toe at Charlotte in the season opener. But if the Dukes avoid the pitfalls, there’s enough here to see nine wins on this schedule.

South Alabama Over 6.5 Wins (-160)

Houston’s impatience is South Alabama’s opportunity. Major Applewhite never got a fair shot in Houston, as the Cougars chose to chase Dana Holgorsen after Applewhite’s second season. Applewhite actually never had a losing record in Houston, going 15-10 with two bowl appearances before getting axed.

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Now in his first real chance, Applewhite should have a much easier time in Mobile. The talent level did take a hit after Kane Wommack decided to join former colleague Kalen DeBoer in Tuscaloosa, but the cupboard isn’t bare and the schedule is manageable. Having to go to App State and LSU isn’t great, but the Jaguars do get Troy at home. The rest of the slate is reasonable, and there’s enough returning talent on both sides of the ball to expect another bowl appearance.

Louisiana-Monroe Under 2 Wins (+105)

Can you find two wins on this schedule? Louisiana-Monroe hasn’t won a Sun Belt game since 2022, dropping 10 straight in the league. The Warhawks managed to go 2-10 last year, and the schedule is just as loaded this year. It might even be more loaded, as UAB is in better shape as a program than Army. The Warhawks upset the Black Knights last season, but the Blazers won’t take a semi-local foe lightly in a game they need to win.

Louisiana-Monroe really needed to draw Georgia State or Old Dominion as their Eastern home game to build some confidence. Instead, they got James Madison, which only ran over the Sun Belt last year on its way to an uncrowned season because of NCAA rules. Facing Marshall at home would have helped, but that game’s in Huntington. The best chance at a league win is Southern Miss, which is at least a home game. Lose there, and they’re not getting more than one victory.