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Best Futures Bets in the Big Ten

Dan Angell, Contributor
Best Futures Bets in the Big Ten. Photo by Sean Meagher/The Oregonian

Best Futures Bets In the Big Ten

BEST FUTURES BETS IN THE BIG TEN — No longer can college football fans joke about the Big Ten’s futility. Michigan finally broke through to win the league’s first championship since 2014, and the league only got stronger with its new additions from the Pac-12’s remnants. The Big Ten got the four most desirable pieces of the western league, as Washington, Oregon, USC and UCLA move into the historically Midwestern league.

And that’s established a so-called Big Four in year one of the Big Ten Plus Eight. Divisions are also finally a thing of the past, which opens the door for more than one Eastern school to qualify for the title game. And that makes the schedule even more important when figuring out futures plays. Here are a few top bets in the Big Ten.

Oregon to Win the Conference, +200

The value is stronger on both Michigan and Penn State, but the Ducks make the most sense. Oregon gets Ohio State in Eugene, and the Buckeyes’ schedule means that the Ducks have a chance to put Ohio State one loss away from being knocked out of the conference title race. There is a trip to Michigan that’s going to really test Oregon’s mettle, but it comes in November.

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It’s also the only real pitfall that comes away from Eugene. A Friday night game at Purdue right after Ohio State screams trap, but otherwise, Oregon should be favored in every game until Michigan. The Ducks have the league’s best offense, and the defense certainly isn’t bad. As long as Dillon Gabriel proves a solid replacement for Bo Nix, the Ducks have every piece of the puzzle.

Penn State to Make the Big Ten Title Game, +120

Drew Allar and Penn State have a favorable schedule in 2024. (Photo by Barry Reeger/AP)

If James Franklin can’t get Penn State to Indianapolis this year, it might not happen. The Nittany Lions drew an absolute dream of a schedule, missing Michigan and Oregon. The only teams they’ll face from the old Big Ten East are Ohio State and Maryland, and both teams come to Happy Valley.

Penn State’s big question will be whether the offense can be aggressive enough to take advantage of its opportunity. The Nittany Lions are going to play solid defense, as they do every year. But in games against Ohio State and Michigan, Penn State has looked timid, almost afraid to fail. Drew Allar has a full year under his belt now, and he should be much more comfortable in the offense this year. The Nittany Lions brought in a new offensive coordinator in Andy Kotelnicki, who had plenty of success with Kansas. He’ll encourage more aggression from Allar this season, which could land Penn State in Indy. If the Nittany Lions can finally solve the Buckeyes, they’ll be favored in every other game they play.

Indiana Under 5.5 Wins (-150)

In Florida International, Western Illinois and Charlotte, the Hoosiers scheduled themselves three wins. Can they find three more in the Big Ten?

Honestly, probably not. First, there’s the fact that it’s going to require Indiana to win three Big Ten games in 2024, and Indiana has only won three Big Ten games in the past three seasons combined. Then there’s the fact that the Hoosiers’ conference schedule is rather brutal. They’re certainly not beating Ohio State or Michigan. They’ll have a chance against Michigan State and Northwestern, but neither game is in Bloomington. Nebraska, Washington and Maryland are all a step ahead of Indiana, even though the Hoosiers will be at home.

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That leaves a road game at UCLA and the Old Oaken Bucket against Purdue, the latter of which has gone to the Boilers five times in six years. There’s not one game on this conference schedule that Indiana can point to as a certain win. The Hoosiers will come close to the total, but they’ll likely come up a game or two short.

Nebraska Over 7.5 Wins (-125)

Nebraska football has waited too long to get back to a bowl. This should finally be the season where it happens. Matt Rhule is known as a builder, and he’s got the schedule to make another quick fix. The Cornhuskers won’t leave Lincoln for the first month of the season, and when they do, their first two trips are to the Hoosier State. Nebraska should be no worse than 5-2 when it rolls into Columbus on October 26, and there’s a real chance for the Huskers to be 7-0. Outside of Purdue and Indiana, Nebraska’s other three Power 4 opponents before Ohio State include Rutgers, Illinois and Colorado.

The offense still isn’t good enough for Nebraska to have a realistic shot at the Big Ten title. But it’s getting better, and the Huskers have a real chance to get nine or even 10 wins with this slate. There are worse bets than throwing a dart on the Huskers at +2500 to get to the Big Ten title game at 8-1 in the league. More realistically, Nebraska should comfortably cash the over.

Rutgers Over 6.5 Wins (+105)

Rutgers coach Greg Schiano believes that the Scarlet Knights can compete in the new look Big Ten. (Photo by Matthew O’Haren/USA Today)

There might not be a happier man with Big Ten expansion than Rutgers coach Greg Schiano. First, the Scarlet Knights have slowly built their team up to being competitive in the league. Second, there’s no Ohio State, Michigan, Penn State or Oregon on this schedule. Only Rutgers and Iowa successfully avoided all four of the league favorites, which gives the Scarlet Knights a real shot at back-to-back bowls.

The non-conference slate is forgiving, outside of a Week 3 trip to Virginia Tech. So is the conference schedule, as the Scarlet Knights get three home games out of their first four in the league. Nebraska is probably the best team that Rutgers travels to, and it gets five home games. There’s a lot that can go wrong, as Rutgers will be in a lot of coin flip games. But getting plus money here offers solid value.

Author

  • Dan Angell, Contributor

    Dan is originally from Virginia and has covered basketball games across the country over the past 18 years. He now resides in Indianapolis and loves a good defensive showcase. His Twitter @danangell11.

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