No. 3 Cincinnati (13-4) at No. 2 Buffalo (14-3)
Sunday, 3 p.m. ET (CBS)
There's a good chance we could see one of the most emotional pregames in NFL history before these two teams kickoff on Sunday. This game will be played exactly 20 days after Damar Hamlin went into cardiac arrest on the field in Cincinnati in what was one of the most frightening moments in NFL history.
With Hamlin out of the hospital and now back in Buffalo, it wouldn't be surprising at all to see him make an appearance at Highmark Stadium this week for what could easily end up being the best game of the divisional round. If we don't count the six minutes of football that these two teams played on Jan. 2 -- and let's not -- then this will be the first meeting ever between Joe Burrow and Josh Allen.
If you like offensive fireworks, then this is the game for you: Both teams ranked in the top eight in the NFL in points per game, offensive yards per game and passing yards per game during the regular season. Although the Bengals offense struggled against the Ravens in the wild-card round, I'm not sure I would read too much into that. Joe Burrow struggled against AFC North teams this year, but he dominated everyone else he played. Here's a look at how Burrow has done in the Bengals' 17 games, including the playoffs:
- Joe Burrow vs. AFC North teams (4-3): 257.9 passing yards per game, 13 TD, 9 INT
- Burrow vs. Non-AFC North teams (9-1): 287.9 passing yards per game, 23 TD, 3 INT
What this means is that teams that aren't used to playing Burrow are getting destroyed by Burrow. The Bills got a small taste of that in Week 17. Although the stats don't count, Burrow had a perfect QB rating (158.3) after starting 4 of 4 for 52 yards and a TD.
Of course, it's also worth noting that the Bills also beat up on non-divisional teams. The difference is that Allen wasn't necessarily a better QB in those games.
- Josh Allen vs. AFC East teams (5-2): 269.3 passing yards per game, 15 TD, 5 INT
- Allen vs. Non-AFC East teams (9-1): 250 passing yards per game, 23 TD, 11 INT
The problem with Allen is that he has been turnover machine this year. Besides his 16 interceptions, he's also lost six fumbles, and although I'm not good at math, I do know that 16 plus six equals 22, which was the most turnovers by ANY quarterback in the NFL this year.
Not only has Burrow had fewer turnovers, but he's also been an objectively better in the fourth quarter this year.
I think what I'm trying to say here is that if we're only looking at the 2022 season, the quarterback I trust more in this game is Burrow.
That being said, even if I trust Burrow more, the Bengals could still be in some trouble this week and that's because they just lost their starting left tackle (Jonah Williams). Through the first 16 weeks of the season, the Bengals were one of just two teams in the NFL that started the same offensive line in every game, but after losing Williams, they've now lost three starters over the past three weeks, which could make things dicey (They've also lost right tackle La'el Collins and right guard Alex Cappa). Cappa and Williams are both "Week-to-Week," but it seems unlikely that they're going to play.
The Bengals are 0-3 this year when Burrow gets sacked five or more times, but 13-1 when he's sacked fewer than five times, which means they just need to make sure that the revamped offensive line is functioning well enough so that Burrow doesn't spend the entire game running for his life.
The last time these two teams played each other in January came at the end of the 1988 season when they met in the AFC Championship, which seems kind of fitting, since the winner of this game will be headed to the AFC Championship.
Burrow has NEVER lost in the month of January (6-0) in his career, so I feel like I have to roll with him here.
THE PICK: Bengals 27-24 over Bills
Record picking Bengals games this season: 13-4
Record picking Bills games this season: 14-3
Johnny’s Bungles ready to roll